072
AXNT20 KNHC 011759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, curving to 11N18W, 04N22W 02N26W 02N28W.
The ITCZ continues from 02N28W, to 02N36W, to the Equator along
42W, to the coast of Brazil from the Equator to 01N between 50W
and 51W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 02N
to 07N between 02W and 07W, and from 01N to 03N between 06W and
08W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A flat and weak surface pressure gradient is in the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb 32N69W Atlantic
Ocean high pressure center, toward Georgia, beyond central
Louisiana. Fresh to strong NE to E winds were within 240 nm of the
NW and W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh SE
winds have been elsewhere from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate SE
winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight to
moderate seas cover the entire Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate
smoke, that is coming from agricultural fires that are in
southern Mexico, is creating hazy conditions for much of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Surface ridging continue to dominates the Gulf waters, and a weak
pressure gradient support gentle to moderate E to SE across the
western half of the basin and light to gentle winds elsewhere. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Texas
and Mexico will tighten, and fresh to strong pulsing winds in the
western half of the Gulf will develop tonight into the weekend.
Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half of the
basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a
thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A flat and weak surface pressure gradient is in the Caribbean Sea.
A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb 32N69W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center, toward Georgia, beyond central Louisiana. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the areas that are
between 70W and 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 14N northward from 81W eastward. The
comparatively most intense precipitation is from 16N northward
between the Mona Passage and the Windward Passage.

Moderate seas are from Jamaica eastward. Slight to moderate seas
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong SE winds are
from 14N southward between 69W and 72W. Strong NE winds are from
Puerto Rico to 20N between 66W and 68W. Gentle to moderate winds
are from Jamaica westward. Mostly fresh to some moderate easterly
winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica
eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 01/1200 UTC, are: 0.83 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.60 in
Montego Bay in Jamaica; and 0.22 in Guadeloupe. This information
is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A 1021 mb high pressure SW of Bermuda and its associated ridge
extending to the Greater Antilles supports moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. The
ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken on Thu, reducing
the areal coverage and limiting these winds to the SE Caribbean by
Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms currently affecting the
Mona and Windward Passages as well as Hispaniola adjacent waters
will amplify tonight into Thu as a surface trough develops N of
Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between this feature and a weak
ridge will also support moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee Cuba
and the Windward Passage Thu night into Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb 32N69W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center, toward Georgia, beyond central Louisiana. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the areas that are
between 70W and 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from Cuba to 26N between 71W and 77W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.

A first cold front passes through 31N45W to 29N50W 26N57W 28N64W.
Strong SW winds are within 120 nm to the southeast of the cold
front from 30N northward between 40W and the first cold front.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are elsewhere within 240 nm to the
southeast of the first cold front from 45W eastward. Moderate to
fresh NW winds are to the north of the first cold front.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 23N northward between
47W and 64W. A second cold front passes through 31N35W to 26N39W.
A surface trough continues from 26N39W, to 25N41W 24N47W 22N51W.
The GFS model for 700 mb shows a trough that is along 27N17W
22N26W 18N40W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 18N northward from 50W
eastward.

Strong NE winds are from 18N to 24N between Africa and 22W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere to the south/to the
southeast/to the east of the line 28N70W 23N55W 22N41W 31N34W.
Fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from 24N southward between 60W
and 74W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A 1021 mb high pressure SW of Bermuda and its associated ridge
extends across the SW Atlantic and supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds S of 25N, including the approaches to the Windward
Passage. The ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken on Thu
while a surface trough develops just N of Hispaniola. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough will support
E-SE winds of the same magnitude E of the trough and NE-E moderate
to fresh winds W of the trough. The trough will also amplify the
area of showers and tstms currently affecting the central Bahamas
and the Great Bahama Bank. The trough is forecast to become a weak
low, which will track NE Fri through Sat, and open back into a
trough while exiting the area Sat afternoon. Locally strong and
gusty winds are possible to develop in the northern semicircle of
the low within this period.

$$
mt/nr