905
FXUS61 KBGM 040735
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
335 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow
moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure
looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another
frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 am update...

A weak frontal boundary is producing some sprinkles early this
morning from Syracuse to Elmira and Troy PA. Rain is having a
hard time making it through the dry low levels. Rain and better
moisture over southwest and central PA will slowly creep
northeast into NEPA and the southern tier of CNY late this
afternoon and tonight for the rest of the area. Clouds are
already here and will remain through Sunday. Most of the rain
will fall late tonight and Sunday before moving east Sunday
night with a cold front. Rainfall totals will be mostly under an
inch. With clouds and cooler temperatures instability will be
tough to get today and tonight. Sunday afternoon there could be
a little instability but only a few models show this. Kept
thunderstorms out of the forecast for this period.

With little rain today high temperatures range from the mid 60s
along the I90 corridor to around 60 in the southern tier and
NEPA. Tonight low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to
around 50. Sunday high temperatures will range from the low 60s
in the Finger Lakes and central southern tier where the least
rain will fall to the mid 50s in the western Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
120 PM Update...

Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during
this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an
occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure
system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by
Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few
thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up
to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could
drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model
guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms.
Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low
60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off
of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers
Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this
system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more
favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak
system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high
pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on
Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon
and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
120 PM Update...

A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the
arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move
in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This
should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now
Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm
front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in
more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern
continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance
moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this
period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s
and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
120 AM Update

VFR to prevail areawide into the afternoon. Conditions fall from
south to north late today and tonight.

AVP will be the first to fall to MVFR with rain showers around
20z. Fuel alternate around 23z. BGM/ELM drop to MVFR around 22z
then fuel alternate around 01z. ITH drop to MVFR around 00z.

Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts this morning. This
afternoon and tonight winds will be 10 with gusts to 15 to 20
kts.

Outlook...

Overnight tonight through Sunday night...Periods of rain will
bring restrictions to the entire forecast area. Looking mainly
MVFR to MVFR fuel Alternate, but some occasional IFR
restrictions are also possible, mainly on Sunday.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then
becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and
restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...TAC