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000
FXUS63 KBIS 201745
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend this weekend with dry conditions through Sunday
  afternoon.

- Rain chances late Sunday through Monday, possibly lingering
  into Tuesday. Greatest chances (~30 to 50 percent north of
  Interstate 94) come Monday, but this has trended down some.

- Gusty northwest winds Monday.

- Rain chances return later in the work week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Mainly clear skies are now being found across the CWA. Some
breezy northwest winds are being found across central and
eastern portions. A few areas may see winds slightly higher
than previous forecast. Afternoon RH will dip into the 20s and
30s today. However, the higher winds do not line up with the
lowest RH. Thus critical fire weather conditions are not
expected at this time. Overall limited updates needed at this
time.

UPDATE
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Little needing updating this morning. Some lingering clouds
remain across the southwest, with mostly clear skies elsewhere.
These clouds in the southwest should erode this morning
bringing a mainly clear CWA through the day. Temperatures will
warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s today. Some breezy northwest
winds may also linger, although will not be as gusty as recent
days. Overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Clouds cover continues to gradually clear from north to south,
with most areas north of Interstate 94 already cleared out. This
trend will continue through the early morning hours, with mainly
sunny skies thereafter. For update, only change was to adjust
cloud cover to match current clearing trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Current surface analysis places low lifting to the northeast of
James Bay, with high settled through central and eastern Montana
into the Central Plains. Upper level analysis places low over
James Bay, with ridge over the west coast. Short wave dropping
down the back side of the low through the Northern Plains
continues to bring some low clouds and flurries to the southern
half our area, though this has been clearing the past few hours
from north to south as the wave continues on its way.

For today, west coast ridge pushes east and amplifies ahead of
an approaching Pacific low. This will result in mainly clear
skies over our area and the start of a warming trend. Quiet
weather remains tonight.

On Sunday ridge passes over but starts to break down as a wave
that ejected off of the aforementioned upper low pushes west
and starts to close off. Ahead of this, temperatures will warm
to a bit above average. Overnight, with the approaching low,
clouds will be on the increase with low chances for some light
rain coming late night primarily to western portions of the
area.

On Monday, chances spread over much of the area, with the
greatest chances (~30-50 percent) being mainly north of
Interstate 94. This has been a little bit of a drop off from the
previous forecasts. Wind shifts west to northwesterly and will
be on the increase. Forecast soundings at this time over western
and southern portions of the area suggest wind gusts of 45 to 50
mph will be possible.

A little rain may linger into Tuesday before the next ridge
builds into the area, bringing dry and mild weather for
Wednesday. Guidance shows persistant trough setting up over the
western CONUS for the later part of the work week into the
weekend resulting in active southwest flow over our area,
bringing rain chances and possibly some thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Look
for mainly clear skies through the forecast as well. Breezy
northwest winds today will become a steady west wind tonight,
with some light and variable winds in the west. Winds will then
become south to southwesterly on Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Anglin