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000
FXUS64 KBRO 130951
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
451 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Zonal flow aloft will remain in place through Sunday allowing
temperatures to remain near to slightly above normal. Surface high
pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico this morning will slowly
slide eastward through the short term. The interaction between the
departing high pressure across the Gulf and the low pressure over
the Sierra Madre will continue to produce an enhanced pressure
gradient across the area. This will lead to moderate to breezy
southeast winds across portions of Deep South Texas for today and
Sunday. Mostly sunny skies are expected today with mainly some
passing high clouds. Highs will range from the 70s at the beaches
and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere, a few locations could reach 90
degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Mild conditions are expected
tonight with lows in the 60s across much of Deep South Texas, except
for the low 70s along the coast. Moistening in the low levels will
allow a better opportunity for more low clouds. Sunday will be
partly sunny and breezy with highs in 80s, low to mid 90s across the
Rio Grande Plains.

A Moderate risk for rip currents will exist today through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

After days of tranquility, this portion of the total forecast is
beginning to look more active. High pressure in the middle layers
of the atmosphere, centered over the Bay of Campeche and extended
over the BRO CWFA, will provide dry weather to Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley through a majority of the period. As the
high is then suppressed south and shifts a little east, a series
of 500 mb troughs will move through the Lone Star State. The first
bit of convection initiated by a trough may affect the western
portion of the BRO CWFA Thursday night. A more robust round of
showers and thunderstorms may then affect the entire BRO CWFA
Friday afternoon through Friday night due to another trough
combined with a possible weak cold front. While it is too early to
determine the intensity of the convection for Thursday, and
especially Friday, at this time, would not be surprised if some
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS eventually did occur in the form of
a MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM or SQUALL LINE on Friday. Will be
sure to monitor this developing situation over the next few days.

Otherwise, at the surface, breezy to windy conditions are likely
through the first half of the total period, and wind strengths on
Monday may require a WIND ADVISORY for the three immediate
coastal counties. Temperature-wise, above normal daytime highs and
overnight lows are anticipated, with downright hot highs on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Light southeast winds with abundant high clouds prevail across
Deep South Texas early this morning. Light southeast winds early
this morning are expected to become breezy later this morning
into the afternoon, with gusts over 20 knots. VFR conditions will
prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An enhanced pressure gradient from the interaction between high
pressure across the central Gulf and the low pressure over the
Sierra Madre will produce moderate to occasionally strong
southeast winds and moderate seas through the period. Light winds
early this morning are expected to increase and become breezy on
the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters this afternoon.
Therefore, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Laguna Madre
and nearshore Gulf waters (0-20 nm) from 2 pm until 9 pm today.
Laguna winds tonight will diminish but speeds should hold just
below advisory levels by late evening. Winds are expected to
increase again on Sunday with Exercise Caution or low-end Small
Craft Advisories likely on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf
waters (0-20 nm) by Sunday afternoon.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
Adverse marine conditions, requiring Small Craft Exercise Caution
and and/or Small Craft Advisory, are anticipated Sunday night
through Wednesday due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Lighter
winds and lower seas are forecast for Thursday and Friday as the
gradient weakens a bit.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Today)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Relative humidity (RH) values are expected to recover today as low-
level moisture continues to increase across the region. Have opted
not to issue a Weather Danger Statement, as humidity values are
forecast to remain above 30 percent at most locations this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  70  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               84  66  87  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 86  69  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         88  67  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  71  77  72 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  68  82  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Caceres-63
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66