757
FXUS62 KCHS 040601
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
201 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S.
through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Late this evening: Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis
will slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing.
Model guidance favors far interior southeast Georgia for
overnight convection, mainly Tattnall, Evans, Candler, Bulloch,
Screven, and Jenkins counties. This make sense as this area will
feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.5"
precipitable water values) will be present there. We don`t
anticipate the coverage will be too high, mainly in the isolated
to scattered range. Conditions will not be nearly as conducive
for fog development tonight, though some patchy fog will be
possible across the inland tier. Lows will be mild, with mid to
upper 60s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging aloft will be in place just off the southeastern
coastline, while across the southeastern states a series of
shortwave troughs ripple through. At the surface high pressure
will extend into the region from the east. Between the shortwave
energy aloft and the afternoon sea breeze isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. While a
strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the overall severe
threat will be low. Shear values are not impressive and there
appears to be model disagreements on how much instability will
be in place.

High temperatures will follow a slight warming trend through
the weekend and into early next week. upper 70s to low 80s are
forecast Saturday, with mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight
low temperatures will remain quite mild and well above normal,
generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The highlight of the long term period will be the heat, as high
pressure builds at the surface and ridging builds aloft. A lack
of any forcing aloft will limit any shower/thunderstorm
activity. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid
90s by Thursday. While heat indices will likely remain below
advisory levels, temperatures could approach record levels on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 06z Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm activity should
mostly stay to the west of the terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: There are no concerns for tonight. Southeast winds
will average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across
the local marine waters through the period, yielding rather
benign conditions. Southerly winds in the morning will back out
of the southeast during the afternoon and evening hours nearly
each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt
with seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...