842
FXUS61 KCLE 052340
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
740 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits the area to the the east tonight. High pressure
builds in from the north for tonight and Monday. A warm front
comes through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...
With the evening update, there are a couple hazards across the
area worth keeping an eye on. The first are the few isolated
thunderstorms that continue to linger in the Mahoning Valley,
but these will continue to move east out of the CWA over the
next few hours as the atmosphere continues to stabilize. The
second hazard is the development of fog along the Ashtabula and
Erie County lakeshore zones that has resulted in visibilities
dropping as low as 1/2SM. Will keep an eye on conditions, but
confidence is growing that far NE OH and NW PA will experience
fog development overnight as winds weaken, which may warrant a
Dense Fog Advisory. The only question that lingers is if
temperatures will cool enough due to widespread cloud cover that
is expected. Aside from these features, the bulk of the forecast
is unchanged with this update.

Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front is currently pushing through NEOH and NWPA
this afternoon. There are a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with that front. We did have one
isolated thunderstorm that produced a localized severe
microburst right over the KYNG ASOS which measured a 74 mph wind
gust. The general message for the rest of this evening will be
a chance for additional showers and isolated storms over far
NEOH and NWPA until that front clears through. A marginal threat
still exist for an isolated damaging wind gust with any
stronger storm.

High pressure across southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes
region will build in tonight and Monday. Locations that saw
rainfall this afternoon and evening may see some areas of fog
develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This fog
potential will be mainly across NEOH and NWPA. Overnight temps
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will bring
fair weather conditions tomorrow with mostly cloudy to partly
cloudy skies. Locations further north and closer to the
lakeshore may see a little more sunshine than areas further
south. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with mid 60s near
the lakeshore and lower 70s southward. Fair weather will
continue Monday night upper 40s to middle 50s for overnight
temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With the surface low and upper level low vertically stacked over the
Northern Plains, progression will be slow across the region through
middle part of the week. Upper level ridge axis over the east part
of the Great Lakes region Tuesday morning will push east and allow
thickness layers to increase, winds becoming southwesterly, and
moisture to increase Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, a
warm front will push northeast across the northern Ohio Tuesday
morning and allowing the warm sector to push north across the CWA
during the day on Tuesday. Showers and storms will likely develop
along the northward moving warm front and ahead of the cold front
and push southeast Tuesday evening. There are some model differences
on how far north the mid 60s surface dewpoint tracks across Ohio. A
slight risk of severe storms is forecast across much of western and
central Ohio on Tuesday. Will maintain categorical rain chances
across northwest Ohio Tuesday morning and high pops across the
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon. No cold
advection is expected Tuesday night as Wednesday highs will climb
back up to the upper 70s. Can not rule out a low chance of showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon on Wednesday depending on the
location of the stalled frontal boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main surface low will finally track east across the north half
of Ohio Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Have very
low confidence in placement of moisture fields at this time. As a
result, will maintain elevated rain chance across the area Wednesday
night into Thursday and thinking more convection will be confined to
areas south of US Highway 30. Cold air will finally push into the
region Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level trough
deepens. High temperatures will be below normal Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 60s and some areas will
not reach 60 for highs on Friday through Sunday under
generally mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A cold front currently extends from near Erie County PA to the
southwest near Youngstown, OH. This boundary will continue to
shift east, pushing any lingering thunderstorms to the east in
the next couple hours. Overall, the bulk of terminals are VFR
this evening and are expected to remain VFR through the period.
The exception to this is primarily for the far eastern
terminals, including KERI, KCAK, and KYNG, which may see areas
of fog develop this evening into the overnight hours. Right now,
KERI has already dropped to 1/2SM with ceilings of 200 ft. This
may briefly lift from LIFR to low end IFR, but not expecting
any true recovery to better conditions until Monday morning as
low level moisture remains trapped under an inversion under the
daytime heating helps to erode it. With KYNG and KCAK there is
a bit more uncertainty of how low conditions will drop
especially with clouds continuing to linger over the terminals.
Outside of the far eastern terminals, terminals near the I71
corridor may experience a brief period of low stratus
overnight, but ceilings are expected to be in the MVFR range.
Moral of the story, for terminals who saw showers today there is
a higher chance of getting foggy conditions, but elsewhere the
cloud cover should limit radiational cooling an keep conditions
better. By late morning/early afternoon on Monday, all terminals
should rebound to VFR.

Winds overnight will generally be light and variable. By Monday
morning, winds will strengthen to 5-10 knots from the northeast
as high pressure pushes south over the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday into early Wednesday with another system.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will track east across the rest of Lake Erie this
evening. Surface winds will become northerly this evening and
increase 10 to 15 knots with waves building to 2 feet and becoming
northeasterly on Monday as high pressure builds from the central to
eastern Great Lakes. An active and complicated pattern will follow
for the remainder of the week. A warm front will lift northeast
across the lake early Tuesday with southwesterly winds of 10-15
knots. Another surface low is expected to track east across Ohio on
Thursday, pulling a cold air across the lake on Friday. The track of
this low may change and have an effect on wind direction, speeds,
and wave heights. Strong cold air advection will yield Small Craft
Advisory criteria by Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin
SHORT TERM...FZ
LONG TERM...FZ
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...FZ