396
FXUS64 KCRP 012057
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL
357 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Current through Thursday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Southeast surface winds have promoted increasing moisture across the
region with afternoon dew points observed in the low to mid 70s.
Convection has been slow to initialize this afternoon with only a
few light radar returns across northern portions of the CWA. Early
afternoon CAM guidance continues to suggest scattered to possibly
numerous showers and storms developing this afternoon into the
evening. Of note, guidance has shifted activity more northward than
morning model runs and greatest focus of initialization now resides
along the north central CWA border, generally after 21Z. SPC
Mesoanalysis tools continue to suggest a favorable environment for
strong to severe storms with surface based CAPE values between 3,500-
4,000 J/kg and DCAPE values greater than 1,000 J/kg. However, the
threat continues to remain conditional with models continuing to
indicate a warm layer between 850-700mb. Of note, SPC has included a
2% probability of a tornado north of a line from La Salle to Aransas
counties where effective layer STP values are greater than 2. In
addition, strong to severe storms developing this evening will be
capable of strong to damaging wind gusts and frequent cloud to
ground lightning. There is a low risk of severe hail. Most
convection is forecast to move north and west of the local CWA after
0Z with a few hints of a lingering storm across portions of Webb
county into late evening.

Overnight, guidance has hinted at the potential for fog development
across the coastal waters, advecting into the Coastal Plains. Any
fog development is forecast to lift through sunrise. Into the
afternoon, enough low level moisture remains in place on Thursday to
support widely isolated showers and lightning storms during the
afternoon (PoPs ~20%). High temperatures range the low to mid 90s
across much of Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 80s along the Coastal Plains and
eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A series of mid level shortwaves pass overhead through the period.
Model soundings indicate a dry mid layer generally persisting into
early next week with limited moisture around 850mb. Mostly dry
conditions are forecast through the period with any mention of
precip limited to the Rio Grande Plains Friday and Saturday
afternoon (PoP ~ 20%). Temperatures widely ranging the 90s across
Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains late this week, warm to 100
degrees by Monday. Along the coastal plains and eastward, highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s follow a gradual warming trend each
afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR CIGs continue at the TAF sites though some improvement to
CIGs is expected as cloud cover begins to thin from ALI to CRP and
VCT. Isolated SHRA/TSRA are forecast to begin in the next few
hours, delayed some by lingering clouds early this afternoon.
TEMPOs/AMDs may be needed as any TS approach the sites, mainly
from KCOT to KVCT. Breezy to gusty winds continue closer to the
coast (around 15 kt with gusts near 25 kt).

Storms may linger after 09z and approach VCT closer to 12z Thu. If
this scenario is realized, additional changes to the TAF will be
necessary, but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Small craft should exercise caution tonight for onshore winds of 15-
20 kts across the offshore waters. Onshore flow continues on
Thursday, building seas to 4-6 ft. Seas gradually subside Thursday
night through Friday as onshore flow falls to 8-12 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  87  76  89 /  10  10   0   0
Victoria          74  87  73  87 /  30  20  10  10
Laredo            76  95  75  98 /  20  10   0  20
Alice             74  90  74  92 /  20  20   0  10
Rockport          75  85  75  85 /  10  10  10   0
Cotulla           75  92  75  97 /  30  20   0  20
Kingsville        75  88  75  90 /  10  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       76  85  77  86 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLB Law
LONG TERM....MLB Law
AVIATION...MLB Schaper