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000
FXUS63 KDDC 231025
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong north to northeast winds will overspread southwest KS
  Tuesday morning and afternoon behind a cold front.

- Severe thunderstorms remain possible across our area Thursday
  afternoon and evening, although confidence is decreasing.

- Another weather system on Saturday reignites severe potential,
  but confidence again is not high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal
west-northwesterly flow is in place atop the central plains,
with a strong shortwave trough digging east-southeast over the
northern plains/upper Midwest. At the surface, a ~997-mb low is
located over southern Ontario, Canada, with an attendant cold
front stretching to the southwest. This boundary is progged to
pass through southwest KS early Tuesday morning, with strong
northerly winds sustained in the 20-30 mph range gusting to 40
mph overspreading our area in its wake. Resulting cold advection
will shave roughly 5-10 degrees off afternoon temperatures with
highs in the low to mid 70s. Towards sunset, winds will
gradually weaken and veer to easterly as surface high pressure
builds into the central plains. These upslope winds may support
a few scattered showers as 0Z HREF suggests, so inherited slight
chance (15-24%) to low-end chance (25-54%) pops were maintained.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will keep a lid on significant
radiational cooling, with lows staying in the 40s.

Daytime Wednesday, a pair of upper level shortwave troughs, one
moving onto the west coast of Canada and the other moving onto
the far southwest CONUS, will result in broad lee cyclogenesis
beginning from eastern CO northward into Canada. Winds will flip
to southeasterly in response, and become somewhat strong
especially across the western zones. Theta-e advection on the
back of this flow will foster mostly cloudy skies across
southwest KS, limiting afternoon highs to the mid 60s to low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Medium range ensembles place the upper level trough center
roughly over Las Vegas, NV, at 12Z Thursday, followed by a
northeastward ejection during the day to near the Four Corners
by 00Z Friday, representing a notably slower trend. This slower
trend throws another wrench into the potential for severe
convection Thursday afternoon and evening as the later arrival
of forcing increases confidence the cap (+8-9C 700-mb
temperatures) will hold. However, if the cap is breached, the
atmosphere will be primed for severe hazards as a deepening
surface low in eastern CO will foster strengthening southeast
winds/theta-e advection which will draw at least low 60s
dewpoints into southwest KS ahead of the dryline that is
expected to be located near US-83 by mid-afternoon. Primary
convective mode will likely be supercells capable of large hail
and damaging winds.

Daytime Friday, ensembles suggest the upper level shortwave will
wrap up into a closed, negatively tilted low over the northern
plains, putting southwest KS well within the dry slot of its
attendant surface cyclone. Strong west/west-southwest winds,
warm temperatures, and fire weather conditions will be the
result.

Over the weekend, the subtropical jet wave train will quickly
reload as both the ECMWF EPS and GEFS bring another upper level
trough from the Desert Southwest at 12Z Saturday into the
central plains by 00Z Sunday. Timing of this wave ejection
appears much more optimal for convective activity across
southwest KS, some potentially severe, but ensembles are fairly
pessimistic regarding precipitation potential as probability of
QPF > 0.1" is less than 50% for much of the area. Currently,
roughly the northern third of our CWA has the best chance of
beneficial rainfall as probability of QPF > 0.1" is in the
50-70% range.

Once this wave passes Saturday night into Sunday morning, the
remainder of the forecast period looks quiet and dry as medium
range ensembles show increasing 500-mb heights over the central
plains. Cooler air will filter into southwest KS on the back
side of the northeast advancing surface low on Sunday which will
support afternoon highs in the 70s, but low to mid 80s return on
Monday underneath synoptic-scale subsidence.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Latest
surface observations indicate a cold front has begun to pass
through southwest KS, and this boundary will continue through
all terminals over the next couple hours resulting in an abrupt
wind shift to the north or northeast. Shortly after sunrise,
northerly winds behind the front will increase into the 18-23 kt
range with gusts of 28-33 kts, and continue through mid-
afternoon. After this time, surface high pressure will begin to
build into the central plains, allowing winds to gradually
weaken and trend more easterly. By midnight Wednesday morning,
easterly winds will be aob 10 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer