Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
040 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3664 (S19W87, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) began its transit of the western limb. The region produced a long-duration M6.6 (R2/Moderate) flare at 13/0944 UTC. Associated with the event were Type II (est. 683 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a 1,200 sfu Tenflare. This event resulted in an asymmetric halo CME with a southwesterly bias, first seen in SOHO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately 13/0912 UTC. While a majority of the bulk material is expected to miss well ahead of Earths orbit, shock arrival followed by possible glancing effects can not be ruled out for 14-15 May as this particular CME is relatively fast and expansive. Regions 3675 (S05W57, Dsi/beta-gamma), 3670 (N19W23, Dao/beta-gamma), 3676 (S21W05, Dsi/beta-gamma-delta) and 3679 (S08E59, Dao/beta) exhibited growth and evolving magnetic complexity in some cases. Region 3681 (S07W20, Axx-alpha) was numbered this period as it emerged rapidly, but then quickly began to decay as quickly as it formed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at high levels due to M-class flare activity (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) primarily associated with AR 3634 through 16 May. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels at 13/1400 UTC with a peak flux of 58.8 pfu at 13/1850 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over most of 14 May with a chance of S2 (Moderate) levels. Background levels are expected thereafter. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of weakening CME influences from all the preceding transients. Total field decreased to 5 nT, and the Bz component was mostly northward during the later half of the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from near 800 km/s to just under 600 km/s by the end of the period. Phi became negative at approximately 13/1500 UTC. .Forecast... An enhanced solar wind environment with CME influences from a filament eruption from 12 May, the aforementioned CME also from 12 May, and weak positive polarity CH HSS are anticipated for 14-15 May. A return to a more ambient-like environment is likely for 16 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due to continued CME activity. Unsettled to active conditions were observed outside after 13/0600 UTC. .Forecast... G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 May due to positive polarity CH HSS and possible CME effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely with any glancing effects from the filament eruption and then aforementioned CME from AR 3664.