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000
FXXX12 KWNP 170031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3643 (S13E48,
Dai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1.1/2n
(R1-Minor) at 16/1802 UTC. Region 3643 along with Region 3639 (S29E36,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited the most growth on the visible disk.
Newly numbered Region 3644 (N12E72, Dso/beta) rotated onto the visible
disk from the E limb. Additional spots were observed rotating around the
E limb near N22.

Additional activity included a ~10 degree filament eruption near S50E25
beginning after ~16/1900 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is need to
analyze any CME associated with the event.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is forecast to be moderate, with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance for an X-class flare
(R3/Strong) over 17-19 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1/Minor) over 17-19 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 19 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced by a passing CME. Total
magnetic field strength was mostly between 7-13 nT. The Bz component was
predominantly southward, with a maximum deflection of -12 nT. Solar wind
speeds remained low, ranging between 350-400 km/s for most of the day.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to trend towards nominal levels
mid-day to late on 17 Apr. Early on 18 Apr, additional enhancements are
expected due to the anticipated arrival CMEs that left the Sun on 14 and
15 Apr. Waning CME conditions are likely on 19 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels under
CME influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected continue at unsettled to G2 (Moderate)
storm levels early on 17 Apr with continued CME influences. G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18 Apr due to anticipated
arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 14 and 15 Apr. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are likely over 19 Apr as CME influence wanes.