Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 222051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
351 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The main concern in the short term part of the forecast is the fast
moving shortwave that dives through the area tonight and Sunday.
This wave is currently over southern Saskatchewan, producing a large
swath of rain over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which will
gradually move our direction tonight and move across the area on
Sunday.  The track of it should keep the CWA dry until approximately
03z tonight, which seem to line up fairly closely to a
distance/speed track on the radar returns over southern Manitoba.
We`re going to miss the KDLH radar once again tonight due to how the
wave is coming in, as it is most likely to affect the KINL area
first.  The band of precipitation will spread southeast into the
Arrowhead overnight, then into NW Wisconsin Sunday morning, then
back out again  by afternoon. It`s a fairly fast moving wave,
precipitation moves out fast in the afternoon.  For now, it appears
we stay warm enough aloft both aloft and at the surface to keep the
precipitation all rain.  The clouds should keep temperatures from
bottoming out as they did this morning, and have kept lows in the
mid to upper 30s most locations tonight.  Sunday`s clouds with the
wave moving through to also keep temperatures cooler than today,
back down into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Summary: The Northland can expect seasonable weather through the
week, with high temperatures either near seasonably normal upper 40s
or bit above normal in the low 50s. There is little sign of any
significant snow for the foreseeable future, but light rain is
possible during the middle of the week.

A large area of surface high pressure will move into the Upper
Midwest Sunday night and Monday, bringing the Northland a period of
clearer skies. Think there may be some lingering low-level cloud
cover in the lingering light northwest flow pattern Sunday night, so
refrained from leaning on the coldest model guidance. Monday morning
lows will probably be in the lower 30s, but if it is much clearer
than anticipated, the temperatures could drop into the 20s, such as
the substantially colder regional Canadian model. Sunny skies should
develop Monday, helping temperatures rebound to the upper 40s and
low 50s.

A broad upper-level ridge will be over the Central US by Monday
night, and a wave is expected to eject out of the southern Rockies
into the Plains. The resulting area of low pressure will move
through the Central Plains to the southern or central Great Lakes
from Tuesday through Thursday. This low will likely bring rains to
parts of the Plains to the Great Lakes, but with the heavier rains
remaining south of the Northland. However, the models generally
spread some lighter rains as far as parts of northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin late Tuesday night through Wednesday. The amount
and chances of rain are somewhat in question. The GFS and ECMWF are
in decent agreement concerning the low`s track, through central Iowa
to the Illinois/Wisconsin border, but the Canadian has a track much
farther to the north. The Canadian`s track through the Twin Cities
area to southern Upper Michigan would not only bring rains to much
more of the Northland, to as far as the Canadian border, but also
much more substantial rains. The forecast is more representative of
the GFS/ECMWF tracks, but may need to substantially increase the pcpn
chances and rainfall with subsequent forecasts if the Canadian`s
track remains consistent and/or the GFS/ECMWF begin trending north.

Even if the eventual low`s track is more similar to the current
GFS/ECMWF solutions, far northern Minnesota could still see some
light rain due to another low moving through Canada and the lift
ahead of its surface trough because of an approaching, potent upper
level trough.

There is much less confidence for the latter half of the week. The
ECMWF has high pressure and cooler weather for the Friday time
frame, but the GFS has Clipper System sliding through the Dakotas
and northern Great Lakes, possibly bringing rain and snow to parts
of the Northland. Leaned on a blend for now. The GFS`s Clipper`s
track, and pcpn and 850 hpa temperature profile, though, suggest any
significant snow would fall north of the border in Ontario.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin is
providing very light wind speeds and mostly clear skies this
afternoon. There will be increasing high clouds later this
afternoon and into this evening, from the northwest, as an area of
low pressure approaches as it moves through the Dakotas. The low
will move through central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin
late tonight and Sunday morning. Associated light rain is likely
across far northern Minnesota, primarily for KINL and KHIB. Even
lower ceilings will develop Sunday morning in the cooler and
northerly flow in the wake of the passing low. The KINL area will
likely have a period of MVFR ceilings, and KHIB could flirt with
MVFR too.


DLH  38  51  33  49 /  20  30   0   0
INL  36  48  32  47 /  60  70   0   0
BRD  39  55  34  52 /   0  10   0   0
HYR  36  54  33  51 /  10  30   0   0
ASX  37  52  35  50 /  10  30   0   0




LONG TERM...Grochocinski
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