Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201730 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Updated for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A strong cold front will continue pushing eastward through the
Northland this morning and this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of the boundary, and
some will be strong or severe. Recent RAP analysis highlights a
general trend toward increasing stability over the area. Clearing
skies are expected as high pressure builds in behind the front
this afternoon through Thursday. Temperatures will trend a bit
cooler this afternoon and tonight in the wake of the cool front.
As the ridge axis slides to the east Thursday, look for winds to
back southerly yielding warmer temperatures by Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Not much change from the past several days. A deep trough of low
pressure will loiter over the western half of the continent for
much of the extended period. A nearly stationary front will be
located somewhere near/over the area and numerous shortwaves will
ride across the eastern branch of trough, and into the Northland.
Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
beginning Thursday night and continuing into next week. While the
details and placement vary from day to day, the Northland will see
a prolonged period of active weather. There is also a potential
for heavy rainfall for any portions of the Northland which remain
near the baroclinic zone.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A front will continue moving east through the rest of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, bringing drier,
westerly flow and a return to VFR conditions. Expect breezy
conditions in the westerly flow, with gusts to about 15 to 20
knots.

High pressure will provide clearing this evening and develop
nearly calm conditions overnight. There is a potential for fog
later tonight and early Thursday morning considering the recent
rain and clear/calm conditions overnight. The best chances of fog
development are in parts of northwest Wisconsin, but not confident
enough to add to the KHYR forecast. May need to add fog to
forecasts later.

The clear skies should continue through Thursday morning. Breezy
southeasterly flow will develop by the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  47  72  60 /  60   0  10  40
INL  66  43  76  58 /  70   0  10  40
BRD  69  48  78  65 /  20   0  10  50
HYR  73  45  80  67 /  70   0  10  40
ASX  75  45  78  63 /  60   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Grochocinski


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