Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 190514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1214 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

At 330 PM, skies were mostly sunny across the Northland.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 50s in the north to the mid
60s in the south. Winds were generally from the west.

A weak shortwave will move eastward across the Northland
overnight, generating some very spotty rain showers. Most of the
models bring some very light QPF across various portions of
northeast Minnesota overnight. Will generally carry 20 POP`s for
the most part, starting in the west late this afternoon and early
evening, and progressing the POP`s into the Arrowhead overnight.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet day across the Northland,
with a fair amount of sunshine and highs in the mid 40s north and
mid 50s south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A brush with cooler air late this week then warming to slightly
above normal temperatures this weekend. A few chances for light
precipitation but overall a quiet weather pattern.

On the synoptic scale a mid-level trough will deepen across the
Mississippi river valley Thursday - the combination of a weak upper
low over northwest Ontario and a mid-level shortwave trough that
traverses east across the desert southwest and into the central
Plains. As this trough deepens and moves towards the Appalachians,
cooler air will advect in from the northwest across the upper
Midwest. While not especially cold - 850mb temps around -5C - it
will still be one of the coolest airmasses thus far this fall. Some
mid-level moisture associated with the upper low combined with a
decent diurnal heating should lead to scattered showers/sprinkles
Thursday in northern Minnesota, mainly north of the Iron Range.
Highs in the low to mid 40s - just barely on the cool side since
normal highs are 49/50 (INL/DLH).

Coldest Thursday night as skies clear out...lows falling to the mid
20s to near 30s, warmer along the Lake Superior shoreline. Sunny and
warmer Friday as a broad warm front/mid-level shortwave ridge builds
eastward across the northern Plains and into the upper Midwest. In
the fast flow aloft (a 135kt jet streak across the Pacific Northwest
within a broad 90+ knot jet extending into Plains) a subtle mid-
level wave traverses the international border causing increasing
clouds Friday night. A brief break Saturday with clearing skies and
warmer air aloft, then another subtle mid-level wave leads to
increasing clouds Saturday night. Both waves could bring chances for
light precipitation to anywhere across the Northland, though the
best chance would probably be in northern Minnesota. Rinse and
repeat into the beginning of the work week with additional low
chances for precip possible; none of these impulses will be
particularly impressive in terms of large-scale forcing or moisture.
Temperatures through the weekend into just above normal in the mid
40s (MN Arrowhead) to low/mid 50s elsewhere across the Northland.
Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A trough of low pressure and cold front were moving through the
Northland late this evening with colder air moving in behind these
features. There has been some light showers in spots but those
should be dissipating over the next hour or two. MVFR ceilings were
moving into northern Minnesota and should continue to do so on west
to northwest winds. MVFR ceilings extended through North Dakota into
Montana and southern Saskatchewan. We bring these ceilings into
KHIB/KBRD/KINL and as far east as KDLH overnight into Wednesday
morning. Cyclonic flow aloft and colder air will be over the
Northland Wednesday and should lead to more clouds, especially far
north. The guidance is mixed in how far east and south these MVFR
ceilings occur and how quickly they lift on Wednesday. It`s possible
we may have to hold onto the lower ceilings longer at KBRD and KDLH.


DLH  32  43  29  46 /   0  10   0   0
INL  32  42  27  46 /  10  20   0   0
BRD  32  44  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  33  46  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  35  46  33  47 /   0  10  10  10


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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