Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 280004
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
604 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A NICE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...STILL SEVERAL
HOURS OUT FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. FORECAST IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPS THIS MORNING WITH NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS IN THE -20 TO
-10 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
AFFECTING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WERE WEAKENING THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
TODAY. TONIGHT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT SNOWFALL AND A WARMING TREND. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE AROUND 2-4 INCHES...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
LONGWAVE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
PLAINS. AT LOWER LEVELS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM NEAR -20
C THIS MORNING TO AROUND ZERO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATE TODAY
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AND BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO TONIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEAR-SATURATED
COLUMN BELOW 500MB IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA /BEMIDJI TO
AITKIN AND POINTS WEST/...WITH THE MOISTURE QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
INL IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY WITH A PWAT
AROUND A HALF INCH.

TODAY...SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
IN FAR NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTY WISCONSIN AS LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WEAKEN...BUT OTHERWISE NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS.
UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOWFALL STARTING
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND QUICKLY
EXPANDING EASTWARD. BY SUNRISE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT MOST OF NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GEMMELL TO HIBBING TO THE
TWIN PORTS. BY DAYBREAK NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1-3 INCHES....WITH THE MOST ACCUMULATION IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP SLIGHTLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TURN THE TREND AROUND AND TEMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND ZERO...SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WHERE CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLY /MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHERN MN/.

FRIDAY...SNOWFALL THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS
PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OR ALL
SLEET. MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH OF THE AREA COVERED IN A WINTRY
MIX/SLEET...BUT AM ANTICIPATING DRY AIR TO MOVE IN AND LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF TIME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEW SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
DURING THE DAY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20.

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY INTO WASHBURN/SAWYER
COUNTIES. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES TOTAL SEEM ON TRACK /MAYBE A
FEW SPOTS NEAR 5 INCHES/ PLUS SOME SLEET MIXING IN LATE IS ON THE
LOW END OF OUR LOCAL CRITERIA FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY /3-5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL/. BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLEET MIXING IN AS WELL AS BEING
A BUSY TRAVEL DAY RAISES CAUSE FOR CONCERN ENOUGH TO ISSUE /OR IN
THIS CASE CONTINUE/ THE ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT EXPECTED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL FOR THE LONG TERM AND
WILL FOLLOW WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. FRIDAY NIGHT
FINDS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE FA. H85 TEMPS RISE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE SOUTHERN FA TO THE TEENS BELOW
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...TO NEAR 8C OVER THE S AND -3C ALONG THE
BORDER. AS SUCH...BEST FORCING FOR ANY PCPN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA AND HAVE SOME POPS IN
PLACE. AM HOLDING OFF ON THE MENTION OF -FZDZ AS DRIER AIR ON THE
ECMWF SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PREVENTING -FZDZ. ON
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA WITH A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM/DRY AIR REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE FA. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE ALONG
THE BORDER AND HAVE POPS THERE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. MINIMAL
PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FROPA AS THE NORTHERN CORNERS OF THE FA
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME PCPN. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LES
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SNOW BELT OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LS.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND HAVE JUST 20 POPS. ON SUNDAY...A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE FA WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BELOW ZERO C. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE
FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS WELL AS THE PERIPHERY OF LS. HAVE
POPS ALIGNED TO REFLECT THIS FROPA. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS TO NEAR -30 C ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. -25C TO -30C ELSEWHERE. HAVE SOME
POPS OVER THE SNOW BELT OF NW WI SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR AMOUNTS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LEAD TO SOME COLD WIND
CHILLS. SFC HIGH COVERS THE FA MONDAY. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WAA AND SW FLOW TO AFFECT THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PCPN. ON TUESDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION
THE NIGHT BEFORE...LOW POPS LOOKS GOOD. HAVE SOME POPS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LINGERING SFC TROF WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW. SFC HIGH COVERS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS GENERALLY FROM 05Z
THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. KBRD...KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR TO
BE MOST AFFECTED...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS
GENERALLY FROM 11Z THROUGH 19Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED FOR
KINL. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR BY
21Z...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  18  16  32 /  90  90  10  10
INL  -4  17  10  27 /  50  60  20  30
BRD   5  20  17  34 / 100  80  10  10
HYR   0  20  16  35 /  90  90  10  10
ASX   3  19  16  36 /  60  70  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ025-033>036-038.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.