Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 162303
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
603 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers or flurries to continue tonight into
  Sunday for mainly the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. There
  is potential (20-30%) for a quick dusting of snow north of US
  Highway 2 in Minnesota.

- Lake effect snow develops along the South Shore tonight,
  continuing through Sunday night before ending Monday morning.
  A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Iron County,
  with a >80% chance of seeing 6+ inches in the northern portion
  of the county.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are again possible
  Sunday into the first half of next week due to low humidities
  and breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 519 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The radar is freckled with rain/snow showers this afternoon
with a vertically stacked low pressure system over northeastern
Ontario and cyclonic flow over the Northland. Low level lapse
rates are steep enough to not only maintain the showers tonight
through Sunday, but also to mix down the stronger mid level
winds aloft. We have been getting wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in
parts of the Northland, and I expect these to remain strong
tonight through Sunday, though speeds will gradually subside as
the stronger winds weaken as the low pressure system moves
farther east. While we have been getting a mix of snow and
perhaps rain showers this afternoon, these should convert back
to all snow showers for tonight and Sunday as the colder airmass
works farther into the region.

The Lake Effect snow machine will start up this evening along
the South Shore, as the colder air with 850mb temperatures of
-14C to -18C moves in over the region. We have been watching
this potential for a few days now, and I expect an extended
period of moderate snow, with 6 hour snowfall rates in the 1" to
3" range, beginning tonight and continuing through Monday
morning. Lighter snowfall rates will be found during the
daytime, and snowfall accumulations will also be fighting mid-
March sun angles, which should cause some melting during the
daytime, especially on road surfaces. Thus, have backed off a
little on the total snowfall accumulations. While the heaviest
snowfall rates will be tonight into Sunday, snowfall should
continue Sunday night into Monday as well, so have extended the
Winter Weather Advisory for Iron county until noon Monday.

The other item of concern we have been watching for the last
few days is the dry and windy conditions we have been
experiencing. Today RH values have gotten into the 35 to 40
percent range for Pine county MN east to around Price county WI,
where some sunshine has gotten through the clouds and warmed
temperatures to near 40. Together with the windy conditions, we
have been concerned for fire weather conditions that lead to
rapid spread rates. I expect another dry and windy day Sunday,
with RH values over a broad portion of the Northland getting
into the 25 to 35 percent range and the above mentioned winds.
While winds decrease for Monday, it will be another dry one with
minimum RH values once again in the 25 to 35 percent range over
a large portion of the area. The first half of the upcoming
work week will be about the same- dry and breezy.

The latter half of the work week we begin to see some chances
for precipitation, though the models have been pulling a bait
and switch on us lately, hinting at some rainfall in the days
4-7 range and then missing us or drying it out instead. However,
there is a chance. Chances for precipitation move across the
area on Thursday into Friday with a fairly strong shortwave that
has some agreement between the models, but this system has the
potential to miss us to the south. Another works into the area
for Saturday, but there is very poor consistency and am not
optimistic for this one, either.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Northwest winds behind a cold decrease slightly tonight, but
gusts will remain in the 20 to 25 knot range. Scattered snow
showers will continue through the evening but decrease overnight.
Ceilings to lower to MVFR this evening and overnight, but are
likely to improve to VFR once again around mid morning Sunday.
Occasional stronger snow showers this afternoon may briefly
cause IFR conditions. Probabilities for IFR afterwards are low
(< 25%).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 519 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Strong northwest winds over western Lake Superior this
afternoon have become gusty, with gusts around 30 knots for much
of the lake. Portions of the North Shore and around the Outer
Apostle Islands with receive gales of 30 to 35 knots tonight,
before diminishing again early Sunday. A Gale Warning is in
effect for these areas for tonight. Elsewhere, there is a Small
Craft Advisory. Winds turn northerly and weaken slightly on
Sunday. However, gusts of 20 to 30 knots and lingering elevated
wave heights along the South Shore will likely result in
hazardous conditions to small craft. Additional Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed after the Gale Warning ends
Sunday morning.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CDT Monday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ121-143>148.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>142-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...LE


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