Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230517
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1217 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Few changes are needed to the ongoing forecast, we still expect
mid to high level cloud to increase from the convection that was
occurring over the Dakotas this evening. We left POPS in our
southwest zones as there is that possibility as 925-850MB winds
turn southerly overnight causing increasing warm air and moisture
advection. There could be some fog in spots later tonight, although
the increase in clouds later tonight should keep it from becoming
widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Weak high pressure will remain in control tonight with clear to
partly cloudy skies and generally light winds tonight. There will
likely be a tendency for more cloud cover with time as the night
progresses, especially south and west, as mid and high level blow
off from convection in the Dakotas moves east. There is also at
least some potential for thunderstorms on the northeast periphery
of an MCS to clip the southwest portions of the CWA toward dawn,
primarily in the Walker to Brainerd areas.

The warm front and CAPE/moisture gradient to our south will begin
to surge northward Saturday in advance of the next upstream wave
to affect the region through Sunday morning. The exact convective
evolution and mode is still very much in doubt, with numerous
complexities that will ultimately affect the sensible weather.
Instability and shear parameters should be supportive of severe
storms with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts, and a
secondary threat of hail Saturday afternoon well into Saturday
night. In addition, large precipitable water values will be
increasingly advected into an active warm frontal zone as the day
progresses, and this should result in a somewhat robust heavy rain
threat across the southern half of the Duluth CWA. We have issued
a flash flood watch for all areas roughly along and south of the
highway 2 corridor from noon tomorrow through early Sunday
morning, focusing on the area along and just north of the
retreating surface warm front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The Northland will have a couple days of near zonal flow, Sunday and
Monday, in the wake of Saturday night`s cold front. Sunday looks
breezy, and both days look mostly sunny and warm with highs in the
lower 80s. There could be showers and weak storms across far
northern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and early evening.

The chances of storms returns for the middle of the week, with the
greatest chances across the southern forecast area. Temperatures
should be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 70s, partly thanks
to more cloud cover. There are some indications that high pressure
may nose into the Northland Thursday. We might be able to cut back
on precipitation chances for Thursday if the model trend
continues with subsequent runs. Another surge of moisture may come
late in the week, bringing another round of showers and storms for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Weak high pressure will move off to the east and north tonight with
warm air and moisture advection increasing late tonight through the
day Saturday. There is a chance for a few showers or storms over
western areas late tonight, mainly the Walker to Brainerd Lakes
region. However, a better chance for showers and storms will occur
through the day Saturday lasting into Saturday night. Some of the
storms could be quite strong and produce damaging wind, hail, and
very heavy rain. IFR or MVFR conditions will develop as the showers
and storms develop.

Some fog will again be possible tonight with patchy IFR
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  81  60  82 /  80   0   0   0
INL  61  77  58  81 /  80  20   0   0
BRD  65  83  61  85 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  65  84  60  83 /  80  10   0   0
ASX  64  83  61  82 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from noon CDT today through Sunday morning for
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from noon CDT today through Sunday morning for
     MNZ025-026-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
AVIATION...Melde


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