Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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078
FXUS63 KDLH 150550
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1150 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

A Canadian Clipper will continue moving south through the region,
spreading snow south and east through the Northland through
tonight. Most of the Clipper`s snow will fall through this
evening, bringing widespread total snowfall of 1 to 3 inches. This
snow is fluffy and falling on already very cold and icy roads
after weeks of very cold weather, so this snow will cause slippery
conditions on the roads. There will be lingering snow tonight
into Monday. The Northland should remain cloudy overnight as
colder air wraps into the region in the wake of this Clipper. The
cloud cover will prop up our temperatures, so latest forecast for
overnight lows is warmer than previous forecast based on the
consensus of the latest 12Z model guidance. It will dip below zero
across much of Minnesota, and areas of central to north-central
Minnesota will get very cold wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero.

The Clipper will slow down and wind up near the southwest Great
Lakes tonight into Monday, with the large upper low over the MN
and WI region. Expect lingering cloud cover and light snow through
Monday. The cold, Arctic northeast flow over western Lake
Superior will produce lake effect snow showers downwind into
northern WI. Areas of far northern WI near Lake Superior will pick
up a couple to up to several more inches of snow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The closed upper low, with its associated surface low, will be
departing Monday night. Light to moderate snow will still be found
around the periphery of Lake Superior in the evening, then just
in northwest Wisconsin overnight. Lake effect snow will be ongoing
Monday night with the northeasterly flow over Lake Superior. Ice
cover along the south shore from the Apostle Islands east to Saxon
Harbor may affect the snow totals as the fetch will see a slight
reduction. The cold air advection will not be as strong which
impacts delta T`s. Regardless, will have high pops in this area.
Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with some higher amounts possible
Monday night through Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, high pressure
will be moving into the region. Tuesday morning finds the low
level flow over Lake Superior gradually turning toward the
westerly. Warm air advection will affect the region as well making
lake effect snow less likely. High pressure will cover the rest
of the area Tuesday. Upper level and surface ridging are in charge
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On Thursday, differences
in the models aloft with either a trof or a closed low moving
through the region. These differences are quite large and will use
persistence and maintain a dry forecast. The upper flow turns
more westerly Thursday night with mid level ridging through Friday
morning. Major differences in all models show up Friday night and
Saturday, especially aloft, but high pressure is nearby at the
surface. Used some model blending to handle these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

An area of MVFR/IFR conditions in -SN is slowly moving southeast
out of the area with a clipper system moving through the area as
of issuance time, leaving mostly VFR conditions behind. Expect
some lingering MVFR snow flurries/light snow into Monday with
cold northwest flow continuing. Have poor confidence in guidance
this morning as most of it keeps conditions MVFR or even IFR as of
issuance time and most of the TAF period, but there is a large
area of conditions of VFR with scattered MVFR snow showers, and
have trended forecast more in this direction than the more
pessimistic guidance. Expect some Lake Effect snow showers to
develop between 09z and 15z, which may affect either KDLH and
KHYR for several hours after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   1  11  -4   8 /  90  50  30  10
INL  -7   4 -18   4 /  70  10   0   0
BRD  -7   2 -12   5 /  70  10  10   0
HYR   4  15   3  14 / 100  60  40  10
ASX   7  19   9  14 / 100  70  70  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for WIZ007>009.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ002>004.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Monday for MNZ010-018-025-026-
     033>036.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ021.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE



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