Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 031621 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
ESPCIALLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED
NEARING 30 MPH. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW WINDS IN
MOXING LAYER APPRACHING AND EVEN SUPRASSING 30KTS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR MORE UPDATES AS MAY NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE IN NWRN
WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT INL AND MAYBE
HIB/DLH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WHICH COULD IMPACT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR...BUT
INTENSITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND DURATION BRIEF FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO...DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
DLH/HIB/HYR...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE
SINCE THESE CEILINGS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM


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