Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 031158 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
558 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Please read the 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Today will again be mostly cloudy then there will be a chance for
snow later tonight into Sunday.

A weak area of high pressure was over much of the Northland early
this morning and is forecast to move through the area today. The
surface wind will become southerly as the axis of the high shifts
east. We expect plenty of clouds again today. Satellite this
morning did show some of the stratus breaking up over eastern
South Dakota into far southwest Minnesota and it is possible some
partial clearing could work into the Brainerd Lakes, Pine River,
Walker areas late this afternoon. It`s possible flurries or patchy
light freezing drizzle could occur under this stratus, but the
coverage and probability look too limited to mention in the
forecast at this time. Highs will range from the mid twenties to
around thirty.

A trough of low pressure will move through the Northern Plains
toward Minnesota tonight, continuing east into Wisconsin on
Sunday. Snow will develop this evening in western portions of the
Northland and spread east overnight into Sunday. The models are in
decent agreement that the best chance for snow will occur over the
eastern half of the Northland. There will be terrain and lake
enhancement as well late tonight into Sunday along portions of the
North Shore, mainly north and east of Silver Bay. We expect
accumulation tonight through early Sunday evening from a dusting
to 2 inches with a bit more from Silver Bay to Grand Portage. The
Leader/Pine River/ Brainerd Lakes region will most likely remain
under an inch. Although mostly snow is expected, temperatures may
warm enough for a rain/snow mix in spots on Sunday. This will be
most likely close to Lake Superior. The precipitation chance will
diminish from southwest to northeast through the day Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 455 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Not much change to the going forecast this morning. Another slow-
moving storm system is expected to arrive early in the week and
loiter through Friday. Sporadic snow showers and colder temperatures
will be the main story, along with a potential for significant lake
enhanced/effect snow over the snowbelt areas of northwest Wisconsin.

The trough of low pressure will rotate northeastward out of the
region Sunday night bringing precipitation to an end. Weak high
pressure ridging will follow late Sunday night and early Monday
morning, but think skies will remain generally mostly cloudy.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance has come into better agreement
with the handling of the next storm system arriving early in the
week. A trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska this morning
will slowly rotate into the western United States by Sunday night
and into the Plains on Monday. A warm front will lift across the
Northland Monday with a band of rain and snow showers advancing
northeast across my forecast area. The deterministic models vary
in the details, but generally lift the surface low across the
eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota Monday and Monday night.
Heavier precipitation is favored from the eastern Dakotas into
Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Still, a few inches of snow
accumulation are possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning,
with the best potential for accumulation in my northwestern zones.

The system is expected to mature Monday night and Tuesday with the
mid-level trough deepening as the surface low strengthens, becoming
a stacked cutoff low. From Tuesday morning through Friday the
sensible weather will seem eerily familiar, but cooler. Persistent
low stratus with periods of snow showers will be the norm. A
prolonged period of lake effect/enhanced snow in the snowbelt areas
of northwest Wisconsin is not out of the question. Periods of heavy
snow are possible in those areas Wednesday through Friday with
significant snow accumulations within the realm of possibility.

In addition to the snow showers and low stratus, strong southwest
winds are expected over Lake Superior beginning Tuesday. There has
been a persistent and notable trend toward stronger winds over the
past several model runs. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 knots will be
possible, with occasional gale-force gusts not out of the question.
The strongest winds are expected late Wednesday through Friday
morning behind a secondary cold front. The front should dive
southeastward across the region with winds veering west and
eventually northwest by Thursday morning. Anyone with marine
interests are encouraged to keep up with the latest forecast through
the upcoming week.

Temperatures will trend markedly cooler during the extended.
Wednesday appears to be the coldest day in the long term behind
the secondary cold front. Daytime highs in the teens are likely,
with cooler temperatures for northwest and west- central
Minnesota. Lows will dip into the single digits to middle teens.
Temperatures may warm a few degrees for Thursday, and then dip
close to Wednesday`s values for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Stratus deck is expected to persist through this TAF period. With
the exception of downslope flow over portions of southwest
Minnesota skies were overcast as far west as the Missouri River.
Thermal inversion will continue to limit mixing today. The
existence of very light snow flurries indicates there is some ice
in the stratus layer. NAM thermal profiles would suggest ceilings
resulting from ice clouds would remain in the lower half of MVFR
category through this afternoon at least. A narrow ribbon of drier
air may lift across northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and
evening, which could lift ceilings to VFR at HYR. Better timing
seems to be later overnight. A few pockets of high MVFR or low VFR
ceilings are possible at BRD and HIB later today as well. An
approaching trough and weak warm front will lift into the BRD/DLH/
HIB area overnight with light snow possible. Held onto prevailing
light snow at BRD overnight and added VCSH at DLH/HIB/INL.
Confidence with this forecast is above average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  25  34  26 /  10  60  60  20
INL  28  22  34  24 /  10  40  50  20
BRD  29  28  34  25 /  10  50  40  10
HYR  31  25  34  26 /  10  50  60  20
ASX  31  26  36  29 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck



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