Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 192308
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
608 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS LEADING TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED YET...BUT SOME BRIEF 50DBZ CORES HAVE
OCCURRED AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD.

MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON DIMINISHING THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. WE FOLLOWED THAT TREND AND
DROPPED POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS BY MID EVENING...KEEPING THEM A
BIT LONGER OVER EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LINE OF MDT TO TOWERING CU
ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NE MN THIS AFTERNOON. AT
19Z...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM KINL-KPKD-KETH. THE RAP/WRF FORECAST
THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS TO NEAR STC. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY 06Z. WITH THE MUCAPES AROUND 500-1000...MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...AND SOME SUN...WILL PUT SLGT CHC POPS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR FOR ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
FROM THROUGH 00Z. CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AFTER THE FRONT WASHES OUT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND WILL BE
+10C OR MORE WEST TO EAST IN NORTHERN MN IN THE REGION BETWEEN
INL AND THE IRON RANGE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH OF
THE +10C 700 MB TEMPS REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
FORCING WHICH MAY DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPC HAS THE AREA FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO THE IRON RANGE
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD IN A SLIGHT
RISK WITH WIND THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
THAT H85 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 20 C SETTLE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY IS ON TRACK TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM WITH TEMPS
ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A
LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE. AREAS OF MARINE FOG WILL ALSO BE FOUND ALONG
THE NORTHSHORE ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH
POPS DURING THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE.

FOCUS TURNS TO A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT THE LATEST
ECM/GFS BOTH SHOW SETTING UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...STRETCHING EAST
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A SHORT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THIS
FRONT...TRIGGERING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH DETAILS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT...HAVE INCREASED
POPS/QPF DURING THIS AS THE LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS ON THE
ORDER OF 1-2". DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER A SECTION OF MN DURING THIS TIME.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAKE
A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...WITH SOME ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE STRONGEST RETURNS
NEAR KBRD. KBRD COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KINL LATE TONIGHT AND WE
HAVE VCTS THERE. SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
ADD FOR MOST TAF SITES AS THE AIRMASS MAY BE CAPPED. WE DID ADD A
VCTS TO KINL FOR NOW...AND LEFT THE REST OF THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 4-7KFT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  81  65  84 /  20  30  40  10
INL  57  86  67  86 /  10  50  50  30
BRD  65  87  69  89 /  30  30  30  10
HYR  64  84  67  87 /  20  20  40  10
ASX  62  86  66  86 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE





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