Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 150532
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1232 AM AT BOTTOM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AT 345 PM...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...GENERALLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS A TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE A FEW LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WERE BECOMING MORE OPEN CELLULAR AS THE
DAY WEARS ON.

THE WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. DUE TO THE OPEN CELLULAR NATURE OF THE CU FIELD...WE
SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST PLACES BUT MAY NOT HAVE DROPPED
THEM QUITE ENOUGH. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FROST TO MUCH OF
THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A NW MID LVL FLOW COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A
QUIET AND COOL WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING AND STALL ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. LOW POPS ARE INCLUDED
IN THE FCST FOR THIS FEATURE AS BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK
AND DEEP LAYER SATURATION NOT EVIDENT. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN A FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA  FROM THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO RETURN THUR NIGHT. A LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CWA THUR NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE FCST INDICATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER SUSPECT THAT BY MID WEEK THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REFINE POPS ONCE THE TEMPORAL AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING BECOMES
MORE DEFINED. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND MAY IMPACT THE
KHYR AND BRD AIRPORTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  66  43  58 /   0  10  10  10
INL  40  66  40  60 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  41  68  44  66 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  37  66  42  64 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  41  66  44  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...STEWART






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.