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000
FXUS63 KDLH 131730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARDS SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN UP TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

UPDATE...
VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SLOWLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH A SERIES OF WEAK GRAVITY WAVES PROPAGATING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ARE LOCALLY ENHANCING THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER PARTS
OF NW WISCONSIN AND THE HIGHWAY 53/I35 CORRIDORS IN EASTERN MN AS
OF LATE MORNING. THIS IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT WELL DEPICTED IN THE
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM THE DLHWRF..AND IF THE MODEL HAS A
DECENT HANDLE..SHOULD WEAKEN OR DAMPEN OUT COMPLETELY BY MID
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION..AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS WITH STRONG
SOLAR HEATING..WE EXPECT CUMULUS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MIXING INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE ROUGHLY 6000
FT AGL EVENTUALLY OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST
INTO THIS EVENING TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND EXPECTED
TRENDS. UPDATES TO ALL GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCT ARE
ALREADY AVAILABLE.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

VERY QUIET WEATHER TODAY ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD ARE AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
RESULTING SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND AN ABUNDANT SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AGAIN TODAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREA AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO PUSH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ELONGATED AND EXTEND FROM
SWRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA...AND
LIFT TO THE E/NE INTO WRN MN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DURING THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH ENOUGH WAA TO POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MN COUNTIES
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE E/NE WINDS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND POSSIBLY
A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY LATE FRI MORNING...AND THEN COOL DOWN WITH
THE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK FRONT OR MORE OF A TROUGH INTO
MINNESOTA WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS
WITH A LOW END SEVERE THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT...WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  68  52  77 /   0  10  60  30
INL  51  73  52  78 /   0  20  60  20
BRD  53  74  61  79 /  10  40  60  10
HYR  46  76  57  78 /   0  10  70  40
ASX  44  70  52  74 /   0  10  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KK