Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 162101
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
401 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A messy forecast through Friday. An area of low pressure will move
through southern Manitoba tonight, reaching northwest Ontario on
Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level trof will close off into an
upper low by Friday afternoon. These features will affect the
forecast area tonight and Friday. Look for rain to develop ahead
of a cold front that will accompany the surface low. As temps cool
this evening, the rain will mix with snow, or just turn into
freezing rain, then become all snow later this evening and
overnight. Freezing rain is still possible for a time overnight as
there will be just enough warm air just above the surface to melt
the snow as it falls and turn it to freezing rain. Some
accumulations of snow and ice are expected tonight into Friday
morning before the precipitation turns back to all rain by late
Friday morning. The rain may mix with snow along the Canadian
border Friday afternoon. Snow amounts will be less than one inch
west of U.S. Highway 53, with 1 to 3 inches elsewhere. These are
lower snow amounts due to the amount of warm air involved with
this system. A light glaze of ice is anticipated where freezing
rain occurs. Confidence is low in the freezing rain and the amount
of ice it may produce.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Weather conditions will be relatively quiet through the forecast
period with only weak shortwaves moving through the flow.
Temperatures will be at or above their normal highs with only light
precipitation amounts expected.

The clipper that affected the region on Friday pulls off to the east
Friday night.  There will be light snow over the arrowhead in the
evening with a chance of rain/snow mixture in NW WI.  There will be
chance of light snow after midnight but that threat will diminish
toward saturday morning.  An upper level ridge builds into the
forecast this weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies along with
above normal temps.  There will be a weak shortwave moving along the
international border Sunday night that may bring some light snow to
the north.  A ridge builds into the region on Monday and this will
keep the weather dry with near normal temperatures expected.  Due to
the northerly colder flow, there could be some snow showers in
northern ashland and iron counties through midweek.

A warm front will approach the region Wednesday night brining a
possibility of snow to the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
The front will move north through the region on Thursday changing the
precip to rain.  The GFS/ECMWF indicates this could be a strong storm
that could bring a variety of prcip types to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A quick moving clipper will affect the weather across the region
through the forecast period. VFR conditions will be the dominate
conditions through early this evening. However, conditions will
decrease to IFR with rain/freezing rain/light snow possible this
evening with snow after midnight. There will be LIFR conditions
in heavier period of precipitation. IFR-MVFR conditions will be
likely Friday morning improving to VFR by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  40  22  36 /  70  20  20   0
INL  31  38  18  34 /  80  40  50   0
BRD  30  42  22  41 /  40  10  10   0
HYR  30  43  25  39 /  70  20  30  10
ASX  29  42  26  38 /  80  30  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT
     Friday for MNZ011-012-019>021.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Stewart



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