Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 172344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE DLH/HYR SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
VCSH AT BRD THROUGH 02Z AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO EXPERIENCE BR AND IFR BY 06Z WITH SOME -DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WITH
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE VCNTY OF STORMS...BUT WITH MVFR
VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  69  58  70 /  60  70  60  40
INL  53  73  58  75 /  60  70  60  10
BRD  60  77  61  76 /  60  70  50  20
HYR  58  78  60  71 /  60  70  70  50
ASX  56  75  58  69 /  60  60  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF





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