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000
FXUS63 KDLH 180551
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering rain showers will slowly wane and exit the region tonight.
  Another 0.1-0.2” of rain is possible in the heavier showers.

- Cold front on Thursday brings with it temperatures 5-15 F
  cooler than normal for this time of year.

- Potential for a messy setup early next week as a shortwave
  moves through the area with temperatures hovering around
  freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Short Term:

An occluded low pressure that has been bringing us rain and
dreary weather for the last 24 hours will continue to impart
some final rain showers and drizzle before it moves off to the
northeast. As of 1pm, scattered rain showers are present across
North-Central Minnesota with the heaviest and more widespread
rain located near/along the Minnesota Arrowhead and into NW
Wisconsin along the South Shore. With strong SE flow aloft of an
airmass with PWATs near 0.8-0.9”, some locales along the North
Shore could see an additional 0.2” of rainfall through tonight
before the best lift and moisture transport moves north of the
border into Canada. Drier conditions will persist into tonight
with lows in the mid to upper 30s which is typical for this time
of the year.

Extended Range:

By midday Thursday, a cold front will completely move through
the area. Before the front moves through the area, areas east of
I-35 look to warm into the upper 40s in advance of the front.
However, once the front completely moves through the area by
afternoon, temperatures area wide will drop back into the mid
30s before bottoming out in the upper 20s/lower 30s early Friday
Morning. Both Friday and Saturday will be relatively similar in
how they play out with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper
30s and lower 40s. There is a low chance (20-30%) of some snow
showers late on Friday and into Saturday Morning but no notable
impacts are expected at this time. Sunday will be a bit on the
milder side with temperatures rebounding into the upper 40s and
lower 50s. The start of the next week is where models diverge on
their potential solutions. There is agreement that a shortwave
will move through the Northern Plains and into the Northern
Great Lakes sometime Monday and into Tuesday. With marginal cold
air and the potential for the event to traverse through the
night, there are concerns about precipitation types. With that
being said, it’s too far out to get into the weeds about this
storm system as it is still 5+ days out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Most the Northland was under VFR conditions but there are
pockets of fog with visibility 1 mile or less along with very
low ceilings. Patchy fog will continue in spots overnight mainly
affecting KHIB and possibly KINL. An upper trough will settle
over the region through the period with colder air moving in. We
expect low VFR or MVFR ceilings to develop from northwest to
southeast through the period. There also will be some showers
the develop, especially with some heating today.

Gusty westerly winds will develop as mixing develops but will
diminish this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Winds have turned light out of the west, but waves will remain 2
to 5 feet from Silver Bay and areas northeast along the North
Shore into early tonight before waves subside below Small Craft
Advisory criteria. Winds and waves will pick back up as the
west-southwesterly winds increase Thursday afternoon. Westerly
gales become possible Friday as the pressure gradient increases
again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe/KP
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Rothstein