Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 021738 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STORM INTENSITY HAS WANED LATE THIS MORNING BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING...EXPANDING THEM INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AT 350 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE SEEN SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF
INCH...AT LITTLEFORK AND CRANE LAKE. THE STRONGEST STORM AT 340 AM
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...HEADING TOWARD THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NEW STORMS HAD JUST
STARTED TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF BRAINERD. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S THIS MORNING.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MCS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MN. SPC MESOANALYSIS PARAMETERS INDICATE THE AREA
MOST RIPE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THAT AREA. THE GUST FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE IRON RANGE WILL BE ONE FEATURE TO WATCH. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7.5 FROM THE IRON RANGE SOUTHWARD AND
MOST UNSTABLE LI WERE -9 ACROSS THAT SAME AREA. THERE IS SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE AS WELL.

TODAY...THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS THE BEST
FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF
NW WI TODAY...WITH A MARGINAL FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD BRAINERD AND
DULUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S NORTH TO 80 OR A
BIT HIGHER SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVER STORMS WILL BE IN NW WI
DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S TO 50S. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR A TIME...BEFORE A STRATOCU DECK
PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65
IN THE ARROWHEAD TO 70 TO 75 FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERALL WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MUCH COOLER TO START OFF THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA GRADUALLY BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND A CLOUDS UPPER LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND COLD AIR ADVECTING
IN ALOFT MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPS UP ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ASSESSMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO JUST INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE WX
FORECAST. CHANCES WILL BE BEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...MORE
DETAILS IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HELD BACK FROM GOING BELOW THE MID 40S FOR LOWS
BECAUSE OF A CONCERN WITH CLOUD COVER...BUT IF SKIES ARE CLEAR COULD
SEE A FEW COLD SPOTS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FALL TO THE LOW 40S OR
PERHAPS AN UPPER 30 OBSERVATION OR TWO.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A WASHOUT AT ALL. AT
UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO MOVES NORTHEAST
WHILE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVINGS EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...BUT EACH HAS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TAKE. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE THURSDAY MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST PER
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION WHILE SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO
FRONT POSITION DEPICTS DIFFERENT TIMING AND QPF...BUT IN GENERAL
GUIDANCE TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIP HIGHEST THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
SLIGHT CHANCES ABOUND GIVEN SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MILDER LOWS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE KDLH/KBRD/KHYR AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL AIR GRADUALLY POURS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS EVEN COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDED
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE KINL FORECAST...AND MIGHT NEED TO ALSO
INCLUDE MVFR FOR KHIB. THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN
CUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  52  70  52 /  50  10  20  10
INL  73  48  66  47 /  20  10  20  10
BRD  79  51  76  49 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  79  49  72  49 /  50  10  20  10
ASX  78  52  72  51 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.