Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 161727 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLOUDS ARE DROPPING INTO THE FA ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN NW ONTARIO IS DISSIPATING AS
IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER AND HAVE REMOVED THE
RAIN MENTION. STILL EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHER MINOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS OF EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARD THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL CONTINUE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE BORDER
REGION LATE TODAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NORTHLAND.
AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND WE BUMPED POPS UP A TAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL AID IN
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...BUT WE
KEPT SOME LOW POPS AROUND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FGEN IS NOT AS STRONG AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...AND INCREASE
QUITE A BIT OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER SIXTIES FROM BRAINERD TO PARK FALLS...TO
THE UPPER FORTIES OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD..WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING THE STRONG S/W
TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE WED
NIGHT/THUR. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITH TIME..THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.  NONETHELESS..CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SOMETIME THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY ACROSS NRN MN IN AREA OF MOST SUSTAINED LIFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS LEAD COLD FRONT ACT AS A FOCUS FOR WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

MUCH STRONGER S/W TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND CLOSE OFF A
FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD/THUNDER BAY REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE DULUTH CWA BY THIS TIME..WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT
PARTS OF NRN MN..WITH COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING OF POST FRONTAL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PERSISTING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY.

THEREAFTER..MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK..COMMENCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF NICE FALL
WEATHER. HOWEVER..TIMING ON THIS MAY BE 24-36 HOURS TOO FAST AS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS..GIVEN NORMAL BIASES
OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE FOR KINL. A COLD FRONT IN NW
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF
LOWER MVFR CIGS THAT AFFECT THE KINL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET THIS FAR OUT TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

ALSO...THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY LIGHT WIND IN SOME AREAS. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD MIST/FOG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

THE SW TO W WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20   0
INL  65  44  56  40 /  10  30  30   0
BRD  66  43  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  64  39  65  42 /   0  10  20  10
ASX  67  41  59  41 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-
     147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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