Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 181738 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS WC
MN. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

AT 4 AM...THERE WAS A VARIETY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
MID CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. THERE WERE SOME
RETURNS ON AREA RADARS ACROSS SE NORTH DAKOTA AND WC MN. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL POP ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA IN CASE IT GROWS A BIT MORE
THAN EXPECTED. NAM MAINTAINS NO QPF AND 4KM NMM WRF SHOWS LOW
REFLECTIVITY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

DESPITE HAVING A MAJOR SNOW STORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID MELTING OF THE NEW SNOW.

A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. INTENSE WAA DUE TO A 60 KNOT LLJ...ALONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE FGEN SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE 4 KM NMM WRF IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH ITS FORECAST REFLECTIVITY OVERNIGHT...AND QPF IS QUITE HIGH.
PTYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF ICY
PRECIPITATION. A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER COULD RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET FOR A TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
COMPLEX SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OUR CONCERN IS
GROWING THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THINK
SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD...WITH AN INCH OR TWO FURTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR EITHER
THE ICE OR THE SNOW. ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE SLICK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ENE THROUGH
FAR NW ONTARIO. ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDER. PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WITH MUCH WARMER
WEATHER THAN OUR RECENT COLD STREAK...AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TUESDAY CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S SHOULD MELT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE...AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...WHICH IS WHY TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. INCREASE SOUTH TO SSE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...PARTLY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING MUCH HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEING IN THE WEST NEAR 06S THEN SPREAD
EAST. CIGS WILL FALL TO AOB OV010 WITH VSBYS BLO 3SM FROM KDLH AND
NORTH. KBRD AND KHYR ARE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT CIGS
THERE WILL BE MVFR. ONCE WARMER AIR ARRIVES AFT 12Z SOME OF THE
AREAS WILL SEE THE FZRA AND SNOW TURN TO RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  28  47  35 /  10  60  80  10
INL  46  31  51  35 /  10  70  80   0
BRD  49  36  61  37 /  10  60  70   0
HYR  46  30  56  39 /  10  20  70  50
ASX  42  27  51  37 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-026-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CLC






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