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000
FXUS63 KDLH 180533 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.
SOME LOCAL FOG COULD BRING SOME VLIFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY
AT KHIB. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

UPDATE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CASS COUNTY...BUT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND ALSO IN NW WI...WHERE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWER. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THOSE AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KHIB AND KDLH AREAS
DURING THE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
LARGELY IMPROVE DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME LARGELY VFR
OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - TUESDAY/

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NW MINNESOTA TO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND UNDER
THE HEAVIEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT IN THE
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT AND IN AREAS WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THERE WERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND AREAS
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT SINCE THERE IS
ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OUT THERE...THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMES BETTER ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND I CONSIDERED ADDING FOG TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS DUE TO SOME MODELS
INDICATING MUCH BETTER SURFACE HUMIDITY AND WEAK WINDS UP THERE.
HOWEVER...I AM NOT CONVINCED OF FOG AT THIS POINT. THE EVENING
SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THE FOG POTENTIAL. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE I AM
FORECASTING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD GET COLDER DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY. EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND THE 60S FOR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE DURING THE DAY WED AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND COMBINES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL LIKELY SEE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE
RAPIDLY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG SURGE OF WARM
MOIST AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE S/SW. THE INTERACTION OF A WEAK
FRONT AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS WED
NIGHT...AND AGAIN THUR AFTERNOON. A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LIKELY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE CHANCES OF STRONG
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH NUMEROUS OUTDOOR SUMMER
ACTIVITIES GOING ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SUMMER-LIKE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  49  75  57 /  10   0  30  30
INL  74  49  79  56 /   0  10  40  30
BRD  73  54  78  61 /  10   0  30  30
HYR  74  47  78  57 /  10  10  10  20
ASX  68  45  75  56 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$