Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 222037
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL/WET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS
A SFC FRONT DRAPED FROM ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS MOVES SLOWLY
EWD AND INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BL OVER N-CENTRAL
MN. ML CAPE VALUES FROM I-FALLS TO BRD HAVE RISEN TO AROUND
500-1000 J/KG AND COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 25
KT...AND ROBUST MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO PARK FALLS. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE E/NE...AND FOLLOW THE LINE OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. A LARGE AREA OF STABLE AIR IS SITUATED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ROUGHLY 100 MI INLAND. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER LS AND ALLOWED A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE
THIS AIR MASS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND ADJACENT TO
THE LAKE. WAA ALOFT AND THE COOL MOIST AIR AT THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DZ
AS WELL TONIGHT. THIS PUSH OF AIR OFF THE LAKE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE REGION TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP FROM DZ OR -SHRA. HAVE
PUSHED BACK POPS ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES DURING THE DAY SAT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY FROM TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE AND A MODEST E/NE WIND OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. COOL TEMPS AROUND THE LAKE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH
WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WET SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF SEEING RAINFALL. ANOTHER WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN AIRMASS CHANGE DURING LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WE SHOULD START THE DAY LARGELY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND MVFR TO IFR AT INLAND LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS GO
RIGHT BACK TO LOWER VALUES OVERNIGHT. WE ARE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE
IFR/LIFR AND EVEN SOME VLIFR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  68  61  78 /  10  20  50  50
INL  57  76  62  77 /  20  40  70  70
BRD  61  76  66  83 /  10  20  70  50
HYR  61  77  66  85 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  59  71  63  83 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP





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