Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 272328
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Updated for the new 00Z Aviation Discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A generally tranquil weather pattern through the beginning of the
work week with the biggest weather concern being fog tonight.

On the synoptic scale a longwave trough digs into the Four Corners
region tonight into Tuesday with a resulting surface low developing
in the Texas panhandle region. To the north, a ridge across the
Canadian Prairie this afternoon will move eastward through Tuesday,
leading to an area of high pressure building across northern
Manitoba. In between, the upper Midwest will transition to a nearly
zonal flow at mid to upper levels with weak disturbances moving
across having little impacts to sensible weather.

Tonight skies are expected to clear out initially, but as
temperatures fall areas of fog are expected to develop, especially
north of the Iron Range in northern Minnesota and parts of northwest
Wisconsin, especially east of a line from Hayward to Ashland. Lows
will fall to near 20 in some parts of inland Cook county MN,
elsewhere in the mid to upper 20s. Nearly calm wind.

Tuesday will begin with morning fog giving way to mostly sunny
skies. A chance for clouds across northern Minnesota due to a a weak
mid-level vort max moving east across the region, but no
precipitation is expected. Highs slightly warmer than today in the
50s to near 60, except inland areas of Cook county where the snow
pack may keep highs limited to the 40s. East winds off Lake Superior
may also result in cooler temperatures by the lake.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The surface ridge remains over the area Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, with relatively quiet weather for the forecast area.  A
weak shortwave moving through the mid levels should bring some cloud
cover to areas along the Canadian border Wednesday, but it does not
appear we will have enough moisture for anything more.  A strong
upper low that ejects slowly out over the plains on Wednesday is
forecast to move slowly east through Thursday and Friday, and is
likely to spread a bunch of cloud cover our way.  Previous model
runs had also brought precipitation into the southeastern portions
of the forecast area, but the latest runs and the trend has been for
this upper low to stay farther south and leave us dry for Thursday
and Thursday night.  Friday night and Saturday a fairly potent
shortwave moves through the upper level flow, and should bring some
precipitation chances to the area, mainly across northern Minnesota.
 For now it looks like we should get a rain/snow mixture, as it
moves through the area at night, and cold air coming in on the back
side of the wave should manage to turn at least some of the area to
snow for the overnight and early Saturday morning hours.  Main
concern is for timing and track with this wave, as the ECMWF is much
weaker with it and has less precipitation than the GFS.  Confidence
in the forecast beyond Saturday is pretty shaky as the models are
struggling with a trough that moves on shore Saturday night/Sunday,
with the ECMWF much faster and weaker, with a stronger and slower
feature depicted in the GFS.  In fact, the GFS feature is so slow a
ridge builds over the midwest and brings warmer temperatures into
the forecast area even as the ECMWF is bringing that wave across the
midwest and bringing cooler temperatures and chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

High pressure over the region will promote clear skies and very
light wind speeds tonight and early Tuesday. The VFR conditions
are forecast to continue for much of the period, with the
exception of the a period of mist/fog tonight and early Tuesday.
Fog is possible late tonight, but probably developing until
closer to dawn. The confidence in the fog affecting any terminals
is the greatest for KDLH and KHIB, but less so for KINL, KBRD, and
KHYR. Stuck with brief, 2 to 4 hour windows, of MVFR to as low as
IFR conditions at the terminals. The fog should lift in the
morning shortly after dawn, unless thick stratus develops and
hampers the lifting of the fog. This risk is mainly for KDLH
because morning winds may be from Lake Superior, providing
moisture input from the Lake and orographic lifting processes to
help maintain stratus, if it develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  48  29  43 /   0   0   0   0
INL  25  49  29  50 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  28  58  32  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  27  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  28  48  27  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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