Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271713
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1113 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS ENDED EARLY AS THE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING DRAMATICALLY DECREASED...SO THE ADVISORY WAS
CANCELLED AN HOUR BEFORE THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. MEANWHILE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SO MADE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES ON THE
SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CLEARING. NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND
LATER TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATE WITH AN
UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL ST
LOUIS COUNTY WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS
MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS CONFIRM A LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING. LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...AND THESE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON OR SO WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. /ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH./

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD HAS ALREADY MADE IT INTO NW DOUGLAS
COUNTY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS STILL POINTING TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROF WERE MOVING SLOWLY EWD
WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF AND INTO
EAST CENTRAL MN AND NW WI AT 08Z. MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW CENTER WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN IA WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF JUST E OF PBH WI.
LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING FROM SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY MN THROUGH MUCH OF
NW WI. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GREATER THAN ONE MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
RADAR HAS ESTIMATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WASHBURN...CENTRAL SAWYER INTO SW ASHLAND COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BURNETT COUNTY WI. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
INDICATE SOME MODERATE SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
OF NW WI BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS
IS. THIS SAME GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT THE SNOW WILL
END/EXIT THE AREA BY 21Z AND HAVE FOLLOWED BY TRENDING DOWN THE
POPS/SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE FOR A TIME TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR DRIFTS OVER THE AREA BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST.

A TROF WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN MN TONIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS OVER
KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES AS A RESULT. A MENTION
OF FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH
NO APPRECIABLE FORCING NEARBY.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW/TROF DEPARTS ALLOWING SFC RIDGING TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION/FETCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE
POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES. TRENDED THE POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES AND THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BRING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER MOST
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO ONE INCH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD AIR WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
BORDERLAND TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE ZERO OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH THE TEENS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

MOSTLY LOW END MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AT THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS WITH IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE AT HYR THROUGH 14Z. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO LIFR BETWEEN
12Z AND 14Z WITH LIGHT SNOW AT HYR. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
HIGH END MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF WINDOW
OF VFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AFTER 06Z FOR ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR INL WHERE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AT 06Z. NORTHERLY WINDS AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  11  15  -1 /  20  10  10  10
INL  17  -6   5 -11 /  10  20  10   0
BRD  21  12  16   0 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  26  11  19   5 / 100   0  10  20
ASX  27  13  18   9 /  70   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK






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