Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 272331
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
631 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers taper off tonight as high pressure moves into the
  region.

- Next chance for precipitation is on deck for Friday into
  Saturday as a clipper crosses the region. Some mixed
  precipitation is possible along with marginal snowfall
  amounts.

- Quiet conditions with a few low chances for precipitation will
  be seen to end the weekend and into into the new week with
  temperatures trending warmer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Low pressure was located just west of James Bay this afternoon
with high pressure stretching from the Canadian Plains into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front stretched from the low
near James Bay into western Quebec into the Appalachians.
Various inverted troughs were analyzed around the area of low
pressure into the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario
and Manitoba. Within this cyclonic flow regime across the
Northland, snow showers were observed across much of the region.
A few snow squalls moved along the US2 corridor around midday
across northwest Wisconsin and led to some minor impacts as they
moved through. A few snow squalls will remain possible over the
next few hours mainly in areas east of US53. Latest RAP analysis
further focuses this area along the US2 corridor across
northwest Wisconsin where about 50-100 J/kg of CAPE and low
level lapse rates of 7-8C/km coincide. Much of this activity
should taper off this evening and tonight as the low lifts
further to the northeast and high pressure builds in from the
west. Any additional accumulations tonight will be around an
inch or less with slightly higher amounts across the Bayfield
Peninsula.

Thursday looks dry across the region with high pressure in
control at the surface. However, cyclonic flow aloft will
persist and a streamer of vorticity looks to pass through
during the day. This may lead to some light flurries, mainly
across the Arrowhead, but dry air near the surface may prevent
anything from reaching the ground. Temperatures will be warmer,
but still about 4 to 8 degrees below normal.

A clipper system is then progged to move across the Upper
Midwest for Friday into Saturday. Despite being about 48 hours
from the start of any potential precipitation, models still
offer differing solutions. The ECMWF is the quickest spreading
precipitation across much of northern Minnesota by Friday
afternoon. The GFS and NAM are a touch slower and hold chances
off until the late afternoon and evening Friday. QPF for this
system looks to be around 0.15" or less with some rain/snow mix
possible at times, especially across our southern zones. There
is also a chance (about 20%) for some freezing rain in spots
across northwest Wisconsin. The southern portions of Price
County currently have the highest chance of any freezing rain
with up to a tenth of an inch of accumulation possible. However,
given the timing differences between the models, this is still
very much subject to change. As for snowfall amounts, most areas
will see around an inch of accumulation or less with possible
some slightly higher amounts across the Arrowhead before the
system exits the region by Saturday afternoon.

For the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, high
pressure looks to dominate across the region. Models continue to
show a system in the area for Sunday into Monday, but the 12z
suite of models have shifted this well to our south will dry
conditions prevailing through the period. A cold front does move
through during the time period as a low passes well to our north
that may squeeze out some QPF however. Any weekend travel plans
look ok at this point, but should the system to the south trend
back northward, some minor issues will be possible. Warming
temperatures are then expected heading into the new week with
readings near to perhaps slightly above normal by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Scattered snow showers this afternoon are moving across portions of
the Arrowhead, Twin Ports, and into NW WI. These snow showers bring
quick bursts of snow that will briefly reduce visibility. This
activity will taper off over the next several hours as we lose
diurnal heating. MVFR ceilings are largely expected to linger
through the overnight period with improvements beginning in the
southwest tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected to overtake
the majority of the region tomorrow but there is a 60s% chance of
clouds lingering over the Arrowhead and impacting HIB/INL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Westerly to west-southwesterly winds will persist tonight at 10
to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots. Snow showers will
remain possible this evening and may reduce visibilities to 1
mile or less at times in some of the stronger showers. Winds
will remain around 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
for Thursday out of the west then turn northwesterly late in the
day and begin to diminish. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect into Thursday evening for these winds. Winds Thursday
night into Friday will be around 5 to 15 knots will slowly
become easterly as a clipper approaches the region. Winds then
ramp up Friday afternoon to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around
25 knots which, along with waves of 3 to 5 feet, will create
conditions hazardous to small craft for a period Friday
afternoon into Saturday for a period, mainly in the western arm
of the lake.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010-
     011-018-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ012.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...BJH


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