Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 281748
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Clouds are developing and filling in where most areas were cloud
free just an hour ago. Have adjusted sky cover to account for
these clouds. May have to adjust again later if the cloudiness
becomes widespread. Adjusted pops downward along the southern
tier of the northwest Wisconsin zones. This is in line with latest
short term hires models.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

An inverted trough over western Wisconsin will shift south today,
while high pressure over south central Canada will slowly approach
the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region. There could be
lingering showers across the far southern forecast area today from
northwest Wisconsin to the Pine County area of Minnesota. Several
models, including The GFS, NAM12, SREF, and ECMWF are producing
this pcpn, and it appears tied to a potential band of low level
frontogenesis. Much of the Northland can expect scattered/broken
cumulus this afternoon, but areas close to Lake Superior will
actually be sunnier due to a lake breeze that will push inland
this afternoon and early evening. High temperatures will range
from the upper 60s and low 70s near Lake Superior, to the middle
to upper 70s well inland.

The high pressure will build into the Northland tonight and
Friday, leading to clearer skies. Very light wind and clear skies
tonight could be conducive for radiational fog development, but
not confident yet. May need to add fog to forecast later. Friday
looks mostly sunny to partly cloudy, with a lake breeze keeping
areas closer to the Lake sunnier than inland areas. Highs will
range from the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The concern for the long term are chances for thunderstorms next
week.

The quiet period continues as an area of high pressure will dominate
the weather across the forecast area through the weekend.  dewpoints
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs in the middle to
upper 70s.  The high will move east of the area late Sunday allowing
a return of moisture into the region.  A weak shortwave will move
through the area Sunday night and Monday bringing a possibility of
showers and thunderstorms.  The weather will remain unsettled into
mid-week as warm air advection along with dewpoints in the 60s and
shortwaves will combine to cause showers and thunderstorms to be a
possibility into Wednesday.  As indicated on the previous shift,
there is a possibility heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

VFR conditions currently expected through the TAF period. The
afternoon cumulus currently affecting the terminals should
dissipate in the 23z-01z time range, with clear conditions
expected after that. Fog is possible at KHIB and possibly other
locations in the 08z-12z time range, but conditions looking somewhat
marginal and need to see how the low level moisture changes during
the day today. Have left any fog out of forecast for now but this
may change. Winds generally northeast at or below 10kts, then
diminishing to light and variable after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  55 /   0   0   0  10
INL  78  48  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  77  54  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  75  49  78  53 /  10   0   0  10
ASX  72  51  75  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...LE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.