Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240506
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POPS FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MN AND
CENTRAL WI AT 19Z...THERE IS A SFC TROF IN NW MN AND ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW WI. A WIDE AREA OF CU HAS POPPED OVER
THE LAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE
ARROWHEAD AS CLOUD BASES ARE AT 10K FT. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
MOVING TOWARD THE I35 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY. HAVE SOME
LOW POPS HERE AS RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT RUSH CITY WHICH IS JUST
OVER THE PINE COUNTY BORDER. EXPECT THE RAIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIR OVER NW WI. DID LINGER THE POPS THROUGH
UNTIL 00Z HOWEVER. AFTER 00Z...THE FORCING DRIVING THE LIGHT RAIN
WEAKENS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE CHARGE. MODELS DISAGREE ON
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND AFTER 10Z TO BRING SMALL POPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE
I35 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS IN CHARGE ELSEWHERE.

ON SUNDAY...THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS QPF
IN THE MORNING. THE ECMWF FEATURES SOME RAIN...BUT FARTHER SOUTH AND
LESS OF IT. THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY IN THE MORNING. USED A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER IN THE MORNING
AND HAVE NO MENTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GRADUALLY INCREASED THE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COMPROMISE
AND MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBOR OFFICES. HELD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
THUNDER UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN JUST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MOST OF THE EXTENDED HAS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL LIKELY SOME DRY PERIODS...AND WE WILL REFINE THE POP FORECAST
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WAA AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN/THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA BY 00Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE HIGH
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR MOST AREAS...INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. FGEN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...LEADING TO ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE RAINFALL
FROM 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...AND BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THAT AREA WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGER FGEN
FORCING.

WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF FASTER.

THE RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE WARMER AS THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
LIFTS NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z SUNDAY.
MID CLOUDS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THAT
TIME RANGE. AFTER 21Z RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS
WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING KBRD AND POSSIBLY KHYR 20Z-24Z...AND THEN
KDLH AND KHIB AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY MVFR
CEILINGS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  60  51  68 /  70  90  50  30
INL  48  65  50  73 /  20  80  70  30
BRD  56  68  53  74 /  70  80  50  30
HYR  55  71  56  73 /  80  80  50  40
ASX  51  67  52  70 /  80  90  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE








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