Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 222347
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

High pressure of western Manitoba this afternoon has brought north
to northeast winds across the area this afternoon and a slow
decrease in the dewpoints across the area from early this morning.
Much of northern Minnesota has broken out into sunshine with clouds
still lingering over northwest Wisconsin and central Minnesota.
There is still some patchy fog &/ drizzle from Ashland to Ironwood,
but this too should continue to dissipate this afternoon as long as
satellite trends continue.

Tonight this ridge of high pressure to continue to slide east,
keeping conditions dry across the area.  Clear skies should continue
for most of northern Minnesota, with clouds remaining across the
southern portions of the area.  Have gone with colder MOS guidance
across the north where clear skies should continue, with warmer
values south where clouds will remain.

Friday the developing low pressure system over eastern Colorado will
strengthen and cause our winds to begin turning more easterly during
the day as the pressure gradient increases.  This is going to cause
stronger winds on and near Lake Superior, though only a little gusty
on land.  The warm air advection and approaching warm front is going
begin bringing chances for showers into the southwest by Friday
afternoon.  There is not much CAPE available so have gone with only
isolated thunder, expecting better thunder chances south of the
forecast area.  Highs near Lake Superior will colder with the breezy
onshore flow and may only get into the 50s, with low to mid 60s
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Upper level ridging covers the forecast area Friday night.
Meanwhile, the associated surface high drifts off to the northeast
into Ontario. This allows a surface low center to get organized in
the western Dakotas, while an upper level low begins to cut off from
the rest of the flow aloft. A warm air advection pattern sets up
between these features and the warm front pushes through much of the
area. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur along and ahead
of the warm front. The warm front reaches the Arrowhead by 18Z/1pm
Saturday and exits the area by evening. Showers will still be found
near the front. In the meantime, the cut off low deepens as it
slowly moves northward. Instability is lacking near the departing
warm front, but increasing as a cold front begins to push into
western Minnesota. Thunderstorm chances increase ahead of the front.
The cold front marches through the area Saturday night and departs
on Sunday. Models show large differences Sunday night through
Wednesday. The GFS deepens the cut off low and drops it over the
region. The ECMWF moves it through Manitoba and into Ontario and
quickly. Used a consensus approach to weather elements to account
for these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

A mix of VFR to MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period as
a warm front approaches from the southwest. The MVFR ceilings
across northwest Wisconsin impacting HYR will continue through
most of the night, but there are signs for improvement towards
Friday morning. At DLH MVFR ceilings are expected to move in late
tonight into early Friday morning, but confidence is lower given
the abundant dry air to the north. At HIB and INL VFR through the
period due to high pressure to the north with only VFR clouds.
BRD will be impacted by the warm front approaching tonight into
tomorrow with a few rounds of light rain showers late tonight and
through tomorrow. Also with additional low level moisture, MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop late tonight and persist through
the day Friday.

Winds will become out of the east late tonight, becoming breezy at
times Friday morning. Winds will be strongest at DLH and BRD with
gusts to around 20 knots expected at both sites, though by the
afternoon wind gusts may not be as strong.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  60  51  62 /  10  20  40  10
INL  40  65  50  66 /   0  10  50  20
BRD  52  64  56  70 /  20  40  40  40
HYR  52  65  54  68 /  10  20  40  20
ASX  51  63  51  67 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for LSZ121-
     141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM



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