Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 211151
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH WEAK
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND PATCHY FOG OVER NW WI THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A
TWO-PRONGED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PHASES INTO ONE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. AN UPPER S/W OVER THE NRN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MERGE WITH A
BROADER UPPER WAVE AND SFC INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE WAVE
TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC AND HAS SHOWN EVIDENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED SFC FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE IS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE FRONT IS
MOVING INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS. SO...RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL BE WEAK AND PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMTS.

THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE ENTIRE FEATURE PROGRESSES EWD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
MILLE LACS TO SPOONER TO PARK FALLS. CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS COULD
EXTEND NWD TO AROUND THE TWIN PORTS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE SHORT-LIVED.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF PRICE COUNTY. LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY SATURATED SFC
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS DOWN TO LESS THAN A
MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER WARM BUBBLE OF AIR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...BUT BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN FROM BRAINERD TO
DULUTH TO PHILLIPS. AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME
CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER 50S AS THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NW. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PEAK AROUND 1 OR
2 PM AND THEN DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FULL EFFECTS FROM
THE FRONT ARRIVE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NRN PLAINS CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN MN AND ROBUST MIXING DEVELOP.
EXPECT SUSTAINED NW WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS MN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING
QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD BE WARMER...WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY
AIR...BUT MIXING IS LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE CAN GET SOME
WARMER AIR AND INSTABILITY IN HERE...WE SHOULD ALSO GET SOME
THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTH.  THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...NOW WITH THE GFS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPES IS IMPROVING BUT
STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH DUE TO MODEL TEMPERATURE AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

NEXT WEEKEND TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KDLH AND KHYR EXPECTED TO BE SWEPT OFF
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WHERE THEY DO OCCUR. AN AREA OF STRATUS IS
TRAILING BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND IS DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ALBERTA. IT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS BEFORE LIFTING INTO
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT IN BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO KINL AND KHIB...BUT
EXPECT THE CIGS WILL HAVE LIFTED BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE
REMAINING SITES. THIS CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH
MAY LINGER FOR LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KINL AND KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  32  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
INL  47  31  52  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  62  33  59  38 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  63  32  54  31 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  58  32  49  30 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE







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