Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 201810
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
110 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FA AT 07Z WAS FALLING APART AS WAA
CONTINUES. A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING/DRIFTING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE NE MN
ZONES. EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 11Z WHEN MIXING SHOULD
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY THE FOG. CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO INHIBIT FOG DUE TO
LACK OF ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
MORNING TO BE QUIET AS RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE FA. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH INTO THE NW THIRD OF THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. STORMS APPEAR TO BE
AIDED BY WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS BEST FORCING
REMAINS WELL N IN CANADA. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND COVER A MAJORITY OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE INVERSION WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THIS WOULD BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY
STORMS. A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE
80S...EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE 70S ARE
FORECAST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
BY LATE AFTERNOON PUSHING HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

THE RIDGE OF HEAT WEAKENS A BIT TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF STORMS
SPREAD A BIT FARTHER S AND E IN THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ALONG AND N OF THE IRON RANGE THIS EVENING WHEN ENOUGH UPPER
DIVERGENCE/FORCING IS AVAILABLE. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN
OVERALL COVERAGE AFTER 06Z AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES BACK INTO
CANADA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA MOVES E OF THE AREA. AFTER
09Z...HAVE POPS ONLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES DEPART. MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
BACK OVER THE REST OF THE FA.

MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH THE RIDGING PREVAILING.
MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BY AFTERNOON...A FRONT WILL EXTEND EN EWD THROUGH NORTHERN MN. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHILE AN H25
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA ARRIVES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND HAVE POPS N OF THE FRONT FROM LAKE WINNIBIGOSHISH NEWD TO
THE EASTERN BWCAW. ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE FIRST PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONCERNED WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING TO
THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MIDWEEK DRY
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF STORMY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A NORTHWEST
PACIFIC LOW BEGINS DIGGING ONTO THE COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS
IN TURN WILL PUSH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
WEEK. INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN
INTO NRN WI. EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT. FCST CAPES MONDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 3000 TO 5000
J/KG RANGE WITH LI/S EXTREMELY LOW. 10 PLUS DEGREE 700 MB CAP IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING...BUT THE
CAP QUICKLY DECREASES LATER MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AS PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...COULD BE
A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WITH A LARGE BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. THIS FAR OUT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT PRECISE AREA. MUCH DEPENDS ON WHERE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP WITH THE NAM SOMEWHAT POINTING TO AREA
AROUND HWY 210 TO DLH AND INTO NWRN WI...BUT MODELS DIVERGENT ATTM
AND MUCH CAN CHANGE. SO THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
MIDWEEK...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES IN THE KINL
AREA AROUND 00Z...SPREADING EAST INTO THE KHIB/KBRD AND KDLH AREAS
BY 06Z. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF KBRD TO KHYR OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  85  63  73 /  50  10  70  70
INL  67  85  63  77 /  60  40  60  40
BRD  72  91  71  79 /  40  10  90  40
HYR  70  94  70  82 /  30  10  70  80
ASX  71  88  67  73 /  30  10  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GRANING






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