Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 230858
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Precipitation has ended across the Northland this morning with
partly to mostly cloudy skies occurring. A weak low level ridge will
pass through the region today keeping most areas dry but persistent
warm air advection will keep a mix of sun and clouds around with the
most clouds over far northern Minnesota. Forecast soundings show low
level moisture increasing over far northern Minnesota and this may
be enough for some light snow or flurries to occur in the afternoon
along the International Border into the portions of the Arrowhead.
The latest RAP soundings suggest there will be moisture present
through an adequately cold layer for mostly snow this afternoon.
However, as we progress through the evening the combination of
persistent warm air advection and some loss of ice may cause some
freezing drizzle to occur from the Arrowhead west along portions of
the International Border. Much of the guidance has no measurable
precipitation including the SREF which is dry through 06Z. However,
several GFS Ensemble members show light precipitation will develop
and given the overall setup with slightly deeper moisture and the
warm air advection, we have slight chances for freezing drizzle by
mid to late evening.

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper twenties today in
the Arrowhead to lower to middle thirties from the Brainerd Lakes
into northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures will only drop slightly
this evening then rise overnight with most areas seeing higher
temperatures at 6 AM Friday than this afternoon.

A cold front and shortwave will approach the region tonight with a
chance for mainly light rain developing late. There may be a few
pockets that are near freezing which could result in some patchy
freezing rain, but chances look low as temperatures warm. Road
temperatures could still be cold enough tonight for some slick spots
on untreated roads. A better chance for rain will occur Friday as
the front and shortwave move through the Northland, but temperatures
are expected to remain above freezing through late afternoon. Highs
will be in the forties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A weak system exits the region Saturday morning. Another weak system
passes to the northeast of Lake Superior on Sunday missing our
forecast area completely. This system may cause minor snowfall
accumulations in the lake effect snow prone regions of Wisconsin.

Then quite a bit of a flip in the forecast with the latest runs
coming in mostly dry through Monday afternoon.  All resemblances of
any major system have been eradicated with the 00Z runs. There was a
bit of periodicity between each of the deterministic models showing
some signature of a larger system, but that is all but gone. So have
dried out the forecast through much of next week mainly due to the
overall consistency of the 00Z suite - none of which show anything
significant. Even the GFS ensembles have removed the signature. The
upper level pattern has deamplified with zonal flow which of course
could bring some minor system sailing through the region, but as of
now impacts look minimal enough to leave out any mention of
significant weather in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A difficult and low confidence aviation forecast. Difficulty
mainly arises in lingering low level moisture in a weakly forced
environment. Flight categories could go a number of different
directions in a fairly small area, so played the northern TAF
sites more pessimistic as they are nearer to a weak frontal
boundary while the southern sites are more optimistic. VFR is
currently predominant though non-TAF sites suggest there is a lot
of MVFR out there. So, there is definitely potential for sub-VFR
conditions through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  28  44  25 /   0  20  50  10
INL  29  27  42  19 /  10  20  50  20
BRD  35  32  46  27 /   0  10  50   0
HYR  35  31  45  28 /   0  10  50   0
ASX  35  30  46  29 /   0  10  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe


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