Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 232139
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
439 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT TO REMAIN QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK IN TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE VERY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
LIKE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SOME CHANGES ARE COMING FOR THURSDAY.  THE MORNING WILL STILL BE
QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  A MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...JUST CATCHING
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT HAVE
ONLY PUT HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OR OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND TO THE SE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF...PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  74  58  74 /   0  10  20  30
INL  45  76  58  77 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  55  78  63  79 /   0  30  40  30
HYR  45  76  59  76 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  47  76  57  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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