Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 250818
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE SURFACE LOW OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW OVER NORTHEAST
ONTARIO...WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW STACKED OVER IT.  THIS LOW IS
CONTINUING TO SPREAD STRATUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THIS LOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST...AS IT SLOWLY OPENS UP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND AND MOVES OFF A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY AFTERWARDS.  AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST TO BRING A PERIOD OF QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER.  CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...BUT GRADUALLY AND SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT ALLOW THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S.  TONIGHT AREAS WHERE THE
SKY CLEARS OUT AND THE WIND DROPS OFF WE CAN EXPECT LOW 40S.  IT
WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AS THE SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ALOFT AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE OVER THE
WYOMING AREA OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THIS WAVE
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...MORE LIKE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND COULD GET
AFFECTED BY SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE WARM AND
MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MIDDLE 70S...BUT WILL BUILD TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND LATER ON IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.
THIS IS DUE TO THE CUT OFF LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY IN
ONTARIO...MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARDS INTO MINNESOTA.

KEPT KDLH AND KBRD IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST...HOWEVER
HINTED AT MVFR CIGS AT KDLH UNTIL 18Z DUE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 20Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KHYR AROUND 13Z. KDLH AND
KHIB SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. BY 01Z
KHYR...KDLH AND KHIB WILL DECOUPLE DUE TO THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION
SETTING UP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  45  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
INL  66  40  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  70  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  65  43  72  45 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  66  47  70  47 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ121-140>143-146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...WL



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