Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 030548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

HAVE UPGRADED ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BURNETT
COUNTY....INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF GRANTSBURG AND SIREN.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALIGNED ALONG THE
700HPA TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SW CORNER OF MN...EXTENDING NE
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND INTO THE NW PORTION OF WIS. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER
HOUR AT TIMES...WILL PUSH INTO NW WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES THIS
CORRIDOR OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL FROM BURNETT COUNTY...THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WASHBURN/SAWYER...AND ACROSS
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
INCREASE POPS WHERE SNOW IS ACCUMULATING. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO IN THE ARROWHEAD ZONES AS WELL AS OVER
BURNETT COUNTY IN WISCONSIN...TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST TRACK OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

21Z WV SATELLITE AND MSL PRESSURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BROADLY
STACKED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE CENTERED IN WESTERN KANSAS MOVING NE
INTO IOWA. AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE
PUNCHES NORTHWARD INTO IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE CYCLONE
DEEPENED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MINIMUM SFC PRESSURE RECORDED AT
992MB AT 20Z... BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FILL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE 300MB JET STREAK PIVOTS TO THE NE SIDE AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. SNOW BEGAN MOVING INTO MINNESOTA
FROM S TO N SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND QUICKLY BROUGHT 3 INCHES OF SNOW
TO ROCHESTER AND EAU CLAIRE AND UP TO 6 FURTHER SOUTH IN
ROCHESTER. THE SNOW HAS ALREADY REACHED THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
CWA AS VISIBLE BY THE 20-30 DBZ ECHOS ON KDLH RADAR... WITH
FLURRIES ALREADY SIGHTED IN DULUTH AND STEADY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING
IN HAYWARD AND ASHLAND. BUMPED POPS UP NORTH AND WESTWARD AND
SHIFTED THE TIMING A BIT EARLIER ACCORDING TO RADAR AND HIGH-RES
MODEL INDICATIONS.

WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING TONIGHT ACROSS MN/ND ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF THE EARLIER SHIFT
THAT THE NW EXTENT OF QPF/POPS SHOWN IN MOST OF OUR SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ARE LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE AND THE INCOMING DRY
FRIGID AIR WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT THE WESTERN SNOW LINE. A TIGHT
SNOWFALL GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... BUT THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE MAINTAINING THIS GRADIENT WITH REALITY. CHANGES
MAY NEED TO BE MADE WITH POPS. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS
HIGH THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR NW
COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN DUE TO THE BRUNT OF THE QPF EXPECTED IN
THOSE LOCATIONS... WITH 6-10 INCHES EXPECTED FOR BAYFIELD AND
WASHBURN CO EASTWARD... AND UP TO A FOOT IN THE SNOWBELT OF IRON
COUNTY. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINE COUNTY IN
MINNESOTA. FURTHER WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA... EXPECT 2-4 INCHES FOR
DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE... AND AS HIGH AS 1-2 INCHES
FURTHER WEST FROM BRAINERD TO HIBBING. THE BRUNT OF THIS SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON... EVENING... AND INTO THE NIGHT. REFER TO
WINTER WATCHES AND WARNINGS POSTED FOR THE NORTHLAND.

THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO SE WISCONSIN BY 12Z
AND REACH UPPER MICHIGAN BY 18-21Z WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END FROM W TO E BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS... BUT LES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE UNTIL 00Z THURS OR BEYOND
DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...JUST AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE
WRAPPING UP FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN....A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF OUR
BIG STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING TRACK AND TIMING. HAVE
INCREASED TO SOME CHANCE POPS...WITH SOME SMALL QPF AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WE REMAIN IN STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING OFF TO OUR EAST AND
500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS ALSO
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM FROM HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO
MID 20S THURSDAY...TO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 BY SATURDAY. NOT MUCH
CHANGE...BUT EXPECT THIS MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW. MODELS ARE AT LEAST
AGREEING THAT THERE WILL BE A STORM...BUT THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
AND DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS IN MORE COLD AIR BEHIND IT.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS...THOUGH THINK THE EVENTUAL
SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MORE LIKE THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECT
THE HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NE WITH LINGERING
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE KHYR
TERMINAL...THROUGH DAYBREAK...IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18   3  22 / 100  30   0  30
INL   4  14   0  18 /  10  10  20  30
BRD  13  19   6  24 /  90  10  30  20
HYR  20  22   1  22 / 100  80   0  30
ASX  21  23   5  23 / 100  90  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.