Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 141140
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014


...AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 638 AM AT BOTTOM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR WAS  NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
MN/SK/OT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN FAR
SOUTHEAST MB. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES AS WELL AS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING
EAST. THE LOW/FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TODAY WITH
A CHANCE REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA  WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT AND RESULT IN MORE
SUN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. SOME
FROST COULD AGAIN OCCUR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER FIFTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  WILL KEEP THE GRIDS DRY THOUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OF TWO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEVELOPS.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE PRECIP BREAKING OUT IN THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY.  THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON SAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BEHIND IT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER IT PASSES...MODELS INDICATE
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AT ISSUNACE EXCEPT FOR INL
WHERE LOW STRATUS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AIRPORT AND CAUSING LIFR/IFR CONDTIONS. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHEN CONDTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. REST OF TAF SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  43  58  42 /  10  10  10   0
INL  55  38  59  40 /  50  20  10  10
BRD  59  39  59  41 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  61  39  58  38 /  20  10  10   0
ASX  62  43  59  41 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART





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