Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 130539
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA. MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE 30S CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE ARROWHEAD. THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FALLING OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN ARROWHEAD AND NORTH SHORE. THERE WAS A BAND OF RAIN
IN FAR NW MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH WAS
STEADILY MOVING EAST.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTH SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS FROM LINGERING
LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH WAS MUCH STRONGER EARLIER TODAY
WHEN IT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE PCPN
COULD ALSO BE AIDED BY SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST TO NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE BAND OF RAIN IN NW MINNESOTA
COULD MOVE INTO THE NW FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD ALSO BE LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW NEAR
INTERNATIONAL FALLS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION. THE PASSING INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL BEING TO BRING COLDER WEATHER INTO THE REGION. THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ADJACENT CANADA WILL KEEP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL S OF THE AREA.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT PCPN REACHES INTO PRICE
COUNTY WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY RIPPLES THROUGH WI N OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SFC RIDGING WILL KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF PCPN. AS
THAT LONG WAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD MN SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME PCPN OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FA AS
THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPARTS. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH THE
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE FA. AS THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD
ON MONDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO GENERATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. WITH THE UPPER TROF FINALLY
DEPARTING...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON COUNTY
WITH A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE SMALL POPS...BUT WITH
UNKNOWN AMOUNT OF ICE AT THAT TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS CONTINUES
ON TUESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO PRICE COUNTY. MODELS DIVERGE FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HAVE USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS/WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED. CIGS/VSBYS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR
IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...TO IFR/LIFR/VLIFR NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING TO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  17  31 /  10  10  10  10
INL  15  27  13  27 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  23  34  16  38 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  23  34  11  35 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  25  32  15  31 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP






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