Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 280921
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for precipitation is on deck for Friday into
  Saturday as a clipper crosses the region. Some mixed
  precipitation is possible along with up to 3 inches of snow.

- A storm system will move across the Midwest early next week.
  The trend with that system has been farther south. There is
  still a small chance (10-20%) of winter weather impacts over
  portions of the Northland focused over northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Cyclonic flow and cold air advection aloft continued to wring
any remaining precipitable water out of the atmosphere in the
form of flurries and light snow showers. GOES-East night
microphysics RGB revealed clouds loitering over portions of
north-central Minnesota, the Arrowhead, and portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The clouds were generally east/north of a
line from approximately Rhinelander to Brule to Duluth to
Hibbing to Waskish and north into extreme eastern Manitoba. Any
additional snow accumulation should be negligible, less than
one-quarter inch.

Skies will continue to clear as the upper-level low pressure
moves farther away. Temperatures today will trend a little
warmer added by a transition to warm air advection aloft, mostly
sunny skies, and the late March sun angle. Thermometers should
top out in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Attention then shifts to Friday. Cirrus will spread over the
Northland ahead of a fast-moving clipper forecast to propagate
eastward across the region Friday and Saturday. Precipitation
chances gradually increase from central Minnesota east and
north with time. Temperatures aloft will support a wintry mix of
rain, snow, and possibly a brief period of freezing rain from
Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. There is a
potential for freezing drizzle as the system departs Saturday
morning. With this morning`s forecast, the greatest snow amounts
appear to be over north-central Minnsota into northwest
Ontario. A dusting up to 3 inches is forecast. The band of
heaviest precipitation will be somewhat narrow from north to
south. Over the past several days, the trajectory of that low
pressure system has shifted north and south at different times.
The axis of heaviest precipitation will continue to fluctuate.
Anyone with travel plans Friday evening or early Saturday
morning should keep up with the latest forecast as details are
refined.

The progressive upper-level pattern will continue through next
week at least. There will be another chance of wintry
precipitation early next week. Forecast guidance continues to
shift the precipitation farther south and east. That said,
several GEFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble members bring
impactful snow accumulation early next week to northwest
Wisconsin. That system has wobbled north and south with time as
well. As of this morning there appears to be a 10-20 percent
chance of several inches of snow. The most likely location is
over southeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. There remains
enough spread in the forecast to warrant a mention, although
precip chances have dwindled over the past several days.

Temperatures trend warmer for the second half of next week with
highs near normal. There will be several additional chances of
flurries and light snow showers during the middle and latter
portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions continue to become predominant early this morning.
Some pockets of MVFR conditions in linger snow showers, which should
gradually dissipate and move off over the next couple hours. VFR
conditions prevail at all terminals by this morning. Another round
of gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon before they calm
into the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Cold air advection aloft was generating weak instability over
western Lake Superior early this morning. The colder air aloft
compared to the warm lake surface temperatures was allowing
efficient mixing into stronger winds a few thousand feet above
the water level. Shoreline stations haven`t reported
particularly hazardous conditions for several hours. We
expected, however, away from the shoreline deeper mixing is
occurring and producing wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Winds
will gradually subside this afternoon and evening. No changes to
the existing Small Craft Advisories with this update. A low
pressure system will move eastward across the region Tuesday
afternoon through Saturday. Strong and gust winds will accompany
that system and will likely bring another period of conditions
hazardous to smaller vessels.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Huyck


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.