Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 291121
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
621 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WAS SINKING A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RESULTED IN A VARIETY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXITING SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.

THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AS SEEN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ONTARIO...THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER NE MN...BUT THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMAINING NEAR SEASONABLE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM
UP TO THE 60S AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH WARMTH EXTENDING
EVEN UP TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY. SKIES SUNNY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD...WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT LESS THAN 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  57  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  59  37  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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