Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270539
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOW ENDING IN IRON COUNTY.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN PORTION OF NW WI. THEE ARE
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS IRON COUNTY BUT THEY SHOULD END
AS DRIER AIR IS PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS SW- FOR THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE FIGURES POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT
THU MAR 26 2015

OVERVIEW...THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT THERE WERE
WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW OVER THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT PCPN SHOULD BE WITH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A
COUPLE QUICK-SUCCESSION CLIPPER SYSTEMS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXCEPT FOR A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE
THE NORTHLAND A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD.

SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING SSW WINDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
ALBERTA MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON...AND THE FLOW WILL USHER WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUN AND WARM FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SUBSTANTIALLY REBOUND FROM THE COLD MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES. LEANED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CLIMB TO AT
LEAST THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
MOVE INTO FAR NW ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING AND NE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE PASSING LOW AND ITS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT BECAUSE THERE WILL BE MELTING CONSIDERING THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT ABOUT
0.10" TO 0.20" OF PCPN. MIGHT BE TOO COLD ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG OVERNIGHT SW WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER COULD BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES...SO WE MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE
THE LOWS. IF SO...THIS COULD FAVOR MORE RAIN AND LESS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. STRONG WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHILE THE
NAM12 SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.

LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUT. THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW OVER PARTS OF FAR NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS NOT THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING TWO
QUICK-SUCCESSION CLIPPER SYSTEMS COULD SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
CLIPPERS COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE AREA AROUND
KBRD...WHICH COULD SEE SOME BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHICH WILL SEE CLOUD STREAM OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  43  33  47 /   0   0  70  70
INL  12  46  36  45 /   0   0  70  60
BRD  17  44  36  50 /  10   0  70  50
HYR  10  44  31  48 /   0   0  60  70
ASX  11  45  32  48 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE/DAP





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