Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 311152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
TUESDAY.

STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS DECENTLY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WEST LATE TODAY...THEN PROGRESS THE CHANCE
EAST TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. WE EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID
LOWER A BIT IN SPOTS DUE TO THE STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY. WE HAVE
HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 FOR MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY...BUT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
FORCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHERE WE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVER FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE SOME STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORM TONIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE FROM 80 TO 85 FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WED/THURS/FRI...FEELING LIKE MID-SUMMER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...A PATTERN WHICH GENERALLY PERSISTS
MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WINDY THURSDAY...GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS WED AND THURS...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS COME FRIDAY
WHEN A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT
IN GENERAL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

SAT/SUN...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS IS A VERY WET OUTLIER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE QUICKER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING POSSIBILITIES.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO IF THE
RIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS /12-14 KFT/ MAY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND FAIRLY SATURATED MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GFS DEPICTS A SWATH
OF 2+ INCH RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OF 3-
4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. GEFS NARR-REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIP
PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL/PSD...A METHOD OF TRYING TO CALIBRATE THE
GEFS FORECASTS TO PAST EVENTS TO PRODUCE A MORE RELIABLE FORECAST
THAN THE RAW GEFS PROBABILITIES...INDICATE ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1"+ PRECIP OVER ANY 12-HOUR PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...SO
THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE DETERMINISTIC GFS FROM ITS ENSEMBLE
AND THEREFORE AM TREATING IT MORE AS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER THAN A
LIKELY SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BE ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE ECMWF SLOWER TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ANOTHER MORNING WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION...CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR WITH BREEZY  WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...WINDS
STRONGEST AT BRD WHERE PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS EVENING A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS. CHANCES
ARE LOW...AND ONLY FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT HIB TO INTRODUCE A
VCTS GROUP FOR THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF AT
LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT DLH/HIB/HYR...BUT
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND HOW
WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES. INCLUDING A BEST GUESS IN THE TAFS ASSUMING
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AT BEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  65  84  63 /  10  30  20  10
INL  85  54  82  56 /  20  30  10  30
BRD  83  63  85  66 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  66  84  63 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  83  65  82  61 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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