Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GETTING
SLOWLY PUSHED EAST BY OUR STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES...AND
AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD COUNTY ON EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO BECOME CAPPED AND HOT WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT COOK...SOUTH THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C OR HIGHER
WEST OF THAT LINE...IN SOME PLACES APPROACHING 10C TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PRODUCING AN EFFECTIVE CAP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW VALUES IN THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS TO ALSO
BE INCREASING...SURGING INTO THE MID 60S WEST AND SOUTH...TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND HAVE PUT A MENTION OF THIS IN
THE HWO...AND WE MAY NEED TO DO A SHORT TERM ADVISORY FOR A FEW
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE TROF OVER BC THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST THREAT.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS GENERALLY BEEN GOOD...RESULTING IN SEVERAL
CYCLES OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE HAS
CONSISTENTLY YIELDED HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM WARRANTED BASED ON THIS
PACKAGE...THEY MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF US HWY 2 DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
CLOUDS LINGER ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING
STORMS...AND WHEN/WHERE STORMS REDEVELOP OVER NE MN AND NW WI.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BORDERLAND.

A ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SHIFT BACK INTO A FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING MONDAY
NIGHT... IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  84  63  77 /  50  70  50  10
INL  68  84  59  74 /  50  60  50  30
BRD  70  87  60  79 /  80  60  10   0
HYR  69  85  62  78 /  40  70  50   0
ASX  66  87  64  79 /  20  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN


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