Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201733
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Light rain was spreading into the Brainerd Lakes area per
observations and latest radar. Current indications are that these
showers will spread as far east as northwest Wisconsin this
morning, then lift northward this afternoon before diminishing
late. This rain is in conjunction with the vorticity max moving
along the North and South Dakota borders. The rain is benefiting
from some frontogenesis as well. Made some adjustments to
pops/weather and increase sky cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

A weak ridge of high pressure was over the Northland early this
morning. This high will move east today and a trough will move
into the region and act on a baroclinic zone to produce a strong
area of FGEN. Showers and a few thunderstorms were occurring over
portions of southwest to south central North Dakota into central
South Dakota as of 08Z and this is expected to move into portions
of the Northland this morning. We made some significant changes to
the forecast for today by increasing the chance for rain quite a
bit. The HRRR is most aggressive with rain coverage and if it
ends up being correct, we`ll have to increase the chance even
further and possibly spread further east into northern Wisconsin.
Highs today will be in the upper sixties to lower seventies.

The FGEN will weaken this evening and the area of rain should
diminish. A warm front will extend from low pressure in the
Central Plains northeast into southern Minnesota and southern
Wisconsin. The front will move little into Wednesday. A shortwave
will move along the frontal surface as well Wednesday along with
strengthening FGEN/WAA and cause showers and storms to increase
through the day, especially along and south of Highway 2 including
all of northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

The area of low pressure will slowly move into the Central Plains
by Thursday as an inverted trough is located over central MN. The
main concern is where the heavier rain will fall. With the
shortwaves moving through the trough and the dynamics, it looks
like the heavier rain will be across NW WI based on past trends
and model forecast. Models are still different with the NAM
further north with the rainfall with the GFS further south and the
ECMWF a little closer to the GFS. Went with a GFS/ ECMWF
compromise for solution. Similar to previous shift, will not put
any potential flooding wording in for now until the situation can
be better defined.

There will be a break in the rain as the trough drifts south out of
the forecast area on Thursday.  But the precipitation returns as the
warm front drifts back north Thursday night and Friday.  It does
look like it could be decent amounts of rain with 0.25 to 0.50
possible.  The upper level trough will move through the region
Saturday night through Sunday night with shortwaves passing through
the region.  This will keep the threat of rain Sunday night.
Finally, it dries out on Monday as a ridge builds into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Light rain showers across parts of northern Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin are impacting some terminals this morning,
with sky and visibility conditions remaining VFR. Winds are light
out of the west-southwest this afternoon at around 10 knots or
less, but will become light and variable overnight, eventually
becoming sustained at 5-10 knots out of the northeast Wednesday
morning. A chance for MVFR ceilings at HYR tonight, but think this
chance is too low to include in the forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  51  65  51 /  40  10  50  40
INL  70  46  64  43 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  70  53  67  52 /  60  10  70  40
HYR  75  53  68  54 /  20  20  70  70
ASX  73  54  66  52 /  40  10  50  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...JJM



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