Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WIND AND SKY COVER. WHERE SKIES WERE
TRYING TO CLEAR ACROSS CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES HAVE QUICKLY
BEEN REPLACED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...MORE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND ONWARDS. WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM12 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT PROMOTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT RECOVER TO
THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO SUNNY SKIES.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS MAY RISE
BRIEFLY TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON HANGING BETWEEN 2-4KFT...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AS BAD
AS IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST CONFIDENCE AT HYR.
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO GUSTS TO 20 KTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION TO THE
LOW CEILINGS INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE BRD WHERE SKIES ARE
FINALLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  47  64  47 /  30  20  10   0
INL  56  43  65  40 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  65  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  45  64  44 /  30  10   0   0
ASX  58  48  65  47 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM



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