Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 061814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
114 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A CONCENTRATION
ON WIND GUSTS AND PCPN CHANCES. SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WIND GUSTS BASED ON THE RAP13/NAM12
SOUNDING MIXING LAYER WINDS. ALSO...MOST RECENT MODELS WERE
INDICATING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO I REFLECTED THIS IN THE UPDATES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BDRY SOUTHWEST
ACROSS ERN NODAK. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE A SVR TRW WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. EARLIER SVR STORMS OVER WRN CWA HAVE DECREASED WITH
MAJORITY OF SVR POTENTIAL SHIFTING JUST SW OF CWA. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH STORMS THIS MORNING. A
LARGE AREA OF MDT/HVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SEPARATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

TODAY...MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION..POSSIBLY STRONG OR SEVERE...WILL PUSH INTO WISC BY
18Z AND EAST OF CWA BY LATE AFTN. FROPA WILL USHER IN A GUSTY W TO
NW WIND AS MECHANICAL MIXING OCCURS IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WARM TEMPS TODAY AS FCST 925 THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS EASTWARD.
EXPECT WARM AIR TO PUSH DOWN TO LAKEFRONT AGAIN AS OFFSHORE
COMPONENT INCREASES DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT...STRONG SFC LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
PRESS GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE REGION. MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DECOUPLING OF BDRY LYR. RESULT COULD BE A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT SO LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST.

TOMORROW...MID LVL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY OVER UPPER MIDWEST AS SHORTWAVE
TROF DRIVES SOUTHWARD INTO NODAK/NW MN VICINITY BY LATE AFTN. DEEP
LAYER MOISTENING IS FCST TO OCCUR WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING. MULTI
MDL CONSENSUS IS THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BY AFTN OVER MOST OF
CWA...WITH HIGHER PROB OVER WRN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS IN THE EVENING AND
DIMINISHES A BIT OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLD TSRA WORDING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST AND HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER ON
TUESDAY. ONE MORE SHORT WAVE CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH COOLER DUE TO CAA. HAVE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF LEAVES AND
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. THE HIGH IS THEN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT FINDS A RETURN TO A WARM...MUGGY PATTERN AS
WAA GETS UNDERWAY. INSTABILITY IMPROVES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROVIDES ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN FA. STILL FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA AND
HAVE JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED. ON FRIDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER
MN. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE TROF. AS BOTH SYSTEMS DEPART ON
SATURDAY...SOME CAA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE LARGELY VFR BUT IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR A
SHORT TIME. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  75  55  70 /   0  30  50  40
INL  58  74  55  71 /  10  40  50  30
BRD  62  79  58  75 /  10  40  50  20
HYR  61  79  57  72 /  10  30  60  40
ASX  60  75  53  68 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP






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