Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 272005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 19Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WITH DRY AIR UNDER THIS AXIS...VERY FEW
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AND ALLOWED HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A
CU FIELD HAD FORMED WHERE WAA WAS INTERACTING WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ND.

EXPECT SOME OF THE CU TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND THE EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS SLOWS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND THE ONSET OF ANY RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 09Z IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AS A RESULT. HAVE SPREAD THE POPS NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH 12Z.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TO
WESTERN MN AT 18Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT UNTIL A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING IN
WARM TEMPS. H7 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM 10 TO 12C AND KEEP ANY STORMS
ELEVATED WHEN THEY FORM. THIS INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE MOST OF THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE HIRES NMM/ARW EAST AND WEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12.
THEY DO HOWEVER POINT TOWARD THE STORMS DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION PREVAILS. HAVE ALIGNED THE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN AT THE VERY BEGINNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
OPPORTUNITY IS NOT UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD EXIT BY THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAN
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/SREF...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS WITH THEIR
FASTER PROGRESSION.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL WNW FLOW. THE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY THE LATE MORNING. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM12/SREF/GFS
ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MUCAPE...BUT CANNOT
RULE STRAY THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WINDY DAY. THE NAM12/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT SOME AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
LOCATION COULD BE PARK POINT BEACH...WHICH MIGHT APPROACH 85
DEGREES...BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM THE WEST WINDS.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL AND BREEZY WNW FLOW.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUNNIER SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WNW FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY WNW FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST AND HAS
THE MOST PROMINENT COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND GEM ARE SUGGESTING
EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SSE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT YET THINK THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECASTS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS TO BE AFFECTED...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES...SO KEPT
DETAILS VAGUE FOR NOW. THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDER
IS LOW FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE KBRD
AREA TO ADD A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR KBRD.

THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  80  62  80 /  30  60  30   0
INL  68  83  59  75 /  30  60  10  30
BRD  70  85  61  80 /  70  70   0   0
HYR  69  82  61  78 /  40  60  60   0
ASX  65  86  64  80 /  20  60  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


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