Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 020856
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
356 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AT 345 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS
BORDER AREA. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
LOW TO THE NNE INTO MANITOBA. THERE WAS DEEP CONVECTION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BLOW OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WAS SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE NORTHLAND HAS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S AND 40S OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA DUE THE BETTER MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THIS MORNING...THE LOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING INTO CANADA WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD.
THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
LIKELY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET LATER
IN THE MORNING.

LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THE NORTHLAND IS
POISED FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION
COULD SLOW DAYTIME HEATING AND DELAY HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS PICK
UP...BUT BETTING THE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER TODAY. THE
NAM12/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH. THE GUSTIEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A COOLER MARINE
LAYER DUE TO EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE INLAND MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THE 60S NEAR
THE LAKESHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AREA AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THIS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET.

TONIGHT...THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL LIFT NE INTO NW
MINNESOTA OR SE MANITOBA. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH THE LOW...SO CONFIDENCE
A LITTLE LACKING ON TIMING OF POTENTIAL PCPN. THE NAM12/GFS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
NW ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING SSW LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
925 HPA WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG NOCTURNAL JET WILL BE FEEDING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION...AND THE SREF/NAM12 ARE SHOWING A WIDE RIBBON OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE OF UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SPREADING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND FROM WEST O EAST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME STRONGER CELLS SINCE THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ABOUT 25 TO 35 KNOTS...TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CELLS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND DOES NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF STRONG STORMS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...AND COUPLING THAT WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE MIXING FROM THE STEADY 10 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW AND TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHLAND BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORNING OR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE LACKING AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM.
THE LATTER MODELS LINGER THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE LOW MOVING
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR OR NE MINNESOTA. THEREFORE...LACKING CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN FORECAST. LEANED ON A WIDE BLEND OF THE MODELS.
LINGERING CONVECTION FROM EARLY IN THE MORNING...COUPLED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW/FRONT OR IN THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY MEAN A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE FORECAST
AREA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO
A POTENTIALLY SECONDARY CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LOW/FRONT OR IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM STRENGTH. STRONG STORMS
ARE UNLIKELY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER BACKED OFF ON THEIR RISK ASSESSMENT FROM THEIR EARLIER
OUTLOOK...WHICH HAD A MARGINAL THREAT OVER THE SE FORECAST AREA.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE WARM MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE THE NORTHLAND A HEAD START. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S AND VERY LOW
70S...BUT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO
MARINE LAYER FROM THE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THE MODELS
WERE OFFERING A VARIETY OF POSITIONS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES ALSO WORKING THERE WAY THROUGH THE REGION IN A W TO
WSW FLOW ALOFT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
LOWEST CHANCE WEST.

WE TRENDED DRIER ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS
WHERE WE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF
OUR CWA AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE IN. ALL THE MODELS
DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE PASSING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER
REGION THURSDAY...SO WE DID KEEP SOME POPS OVER THE ARROWHEAD FOR
THAT AND OVER THE REST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR A
POSSIBLE SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SET OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH BUT MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE HIGH THEN STRENGTHENS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND.

HIGHS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
MIDDLE SEVENTIES. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE OFF LAKE
WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KHYR UNTIL 13Z TO 15Z. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AT KINL BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
BUT FELT THE MODELS WERE OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO
CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS. BETWEEN 14Z-17Z ALL SITES WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AS DIURNAL HEATING MIXES STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AROUND 00Z A DEVELOPING LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT
BROUGHT VCSH TO KINL...KHIB AND KBRD BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. SUSPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AROUND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT MORE
LIKELY AT KINL CLOSER TO 02Z WITH THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  55  68  51 /  10  60  50  40
INL  77  59  69  48 /  30  80  40  40
BRD  73  61  72  56 /  20  70  50  20
HYR  73  57  71  54 /   0  60  60  50
ASX  75  56  72  46 /   0  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.