Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 311743 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING THIS MORNING A BIT LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE LES ADVISORY
UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SOURCE UPSTREAM AND THE NELY FETCH OVER WRN LS IS REMAINING IN
PLACE AND KEEPING THE STREAM OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO PORTIONS
OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE STILL SHOWING
UP ON THE KDLH RADAR...WHICH INDICATES THE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION
IS STILL FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF
SNOW ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE DRIER AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH EWD BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE WERE TWO REPORTS OF 4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN IRON COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVED
INTO ASHLAND COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...INCREASED THE RANGE OF TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE ADVISORY FOR
IRON COUNTY...AND ISSUED A NEW ADVISORY FOR ASHLAND COUNTY.

THE NORTHLAND AND LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUED TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF COLD NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA GRADUALLY SHIFTED
TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COLD FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES
IN NW WISCONSIN. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND AND
DECREASING INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN.
THE MAJORITY OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE THIS MORNING.
PARTS OF IRON COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE A TOTAL OF UP TO AROUND 6
INCHES OF SNOW...INCLUDING WHAT FELL EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WHEN
THIS EVENT IS OVER. ASHLAND COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE REPORTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES.

WIDESPREAD SUNNY SKIES WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...THE COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE
30S. HALLOWEEN TRICK-OR-TREATERS WILL FACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
THIS EVENING. PARENTS SHOULD CONSIDER ENSURING THEIR TRICK-OR-
TREATING CHILDREN WEAR THE APPROPRIATE CLOTHING FOR THE COLD
WEATHER.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEREFORE...LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE GEM REGIONAL. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE A FRESH SNOWPACK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE FROM TODAYS CHILL...WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING...FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. POPS ARE LITTLE MORE
THAN CHANCE THROUGH THIS SYSTEM AS THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING
AROUND AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE. THIS SYSTEM TOO WILL LIKELY HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A POOL OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GO INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DAILY SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKC AND
LIGHT WINDS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...18Z-21Z THERE WILL BE A FEW
SCT030 AT KHYR WITH WINDS G20...BUT SKIES WILL CLR AND WINDS
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  18  42  27 /   0   0   0   0
INL  35  21  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  20  42  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  36  15  43  27 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  36  19  44  29 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...CLC






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