Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 300522 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LITTLE
THUNDER OCCURRING AND WE LOWERED CHANCES FOR THAT AS WELL THIS
EVENING. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SHORE AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE DONE WITH BY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME VERY COLD AIR COMING
DOWN FROM CANADA WITH 8 TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING. THIS MORNINGS
RAOB AT KCYD HAD AN 8H TEMP OF -9. MODELS FORECASTING DOWN TO -3
ACROSS NRN MN. FROST POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST
CLEARING AND LIGHTEST WINDS.

CLEAR AND COOL SATURDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM  CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES TO DIP NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW PORTION
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST.

LATEST NAM/ECM/GFS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A H50 SHORT WAVE DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT MORE
THAN HIGH CLOUDS.

FOCUS TURNS TO BUILDING RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
DAKOTAS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INLAND...WITH EAST WINDS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
DAKOTAS IS ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOSING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL END BY 08Z.

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RISEN OR BECOME SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WILL DO SO OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MORE MVFR CEILINGS
OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHERN MANITOBA HEADING SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY HEAD
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE DID ADD A MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
KINL LATER TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT BRING THEM INTO KHIB/KDLH. THE REST
OF SATURDAY WILL BE VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTH TO
EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
INL  31  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  36  63  46  66 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  30  64  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  32  59  37  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-018-
     025.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.