Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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200
FXUS63 KDLH 121753 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1153 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

AT 330 AM...SKIES CONTINUED TO CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN PORTIONS OF EC MN
AND NW WI. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING IN THE
REMAINING CLOUDS.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES. THE FALLING TEMPS WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND CRITERIA SHOULD
BE REACHED ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.

SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...LEAVING A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONTEMPLATED AN
ADVISORY...BUT WILL HAVE AMOUNTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY...BUT LOWER INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO NOT LEND ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE
WE HAVE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE BROUGHT IN POPS EARLIER AND INCREASED THEM
QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. WE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY CAUSING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THERE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL
BE QUITE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
SOME POSSIBLE SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX WITH THE WAA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE TEENS ON SUNDAY...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO AROUND THIRTY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL THEN
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RISING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT HYR...
KEPT VFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PLACE. THINK WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION MIXING HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE LATE TONIGHT AS ADVECTION
SLOWS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS THE SURFACE LAYER TO
DECOUPLE.

LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT HYR/ASX/PBH THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
BE FOUND AT ASX...BUT THINK SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPORARY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT HYR LIKELY. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH OVER WI THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT LAKE MODIFIED AIRMASS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING LOWER
CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT HYR OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   0 -21   3  -9 /   0   0   0  20
INL  -6 -29   3  -4 /   0   0   0  30
BRD   3 -22   7   0 /   0   0  10  90
HYR   4 -22   8  -7 /  10   0   0  20
ASX   5 -10   6  -8 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-035-037.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ033-034-036-038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...HUYCK



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