Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
FINALLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND COMING TOGETHER...
WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
EXPAND AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TONIGHT. CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
ARE PERHAPS A BIT FAST ON THE TIMING AND MAY MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP COVERAGE
TONIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SK INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. THE AIRMASS
OVER THE NORTHLAND WAS QUITE DRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE TWENTIES. WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT ON A LLJ OF 30 TO 40 KTS DEVELOPS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT...AND THE MORNING SOUNDING AT KOAX WAS 0.93 INCHES.
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP DEVELOP IN RESPONSE. MUCAPE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM 500-1000J/KG EXTENDED FROM EASTERN ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AND THAT WILL MOVE EAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS LIMIT THE
PRECIP COVERAGE TONIGHT TO NORTHERN AREAS...BUT GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WAA...WE KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE NEARS THE REGION. MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR
AWHILE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A
SIGNIFICANT TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER..THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
THE PHASING AND SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL LAKES INTO ONTARIO REMAINS PROBLEMATIC IN RESOLVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE DULUTH CWA.  MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A RAPID INCREASE IN THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS JUST AS IT IS EXITING
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA..SO SMALL SPATIAL DISPLACEMENTS OR IN TIMING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD LATE TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  WE DID NOT DEVIATE TOO
RADICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE..AND THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE TO
SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMS LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO
TUE NIGHT OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNDERNEATH THE CLOSING-OFF UPPER LOW
AND BENT-BACK INVERTED SURFACE TROF EXTENDING NW FROM THE PRIMARY
LOW OVER NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON WED..AND A WEAK SYSTEM DURING THIS SAME
TIME APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON THE DULUTH CWA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM TROF
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR SOMETIME THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME..FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BUT STOUT SHOT OF COLD
AIR.  THUS FAR..THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NEW
FALL/WINTER SEASON AT 925/850 MB.  WHILE THE COLDEST OF AIR WILL
ONLY INFLUENCE THE REGION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS..IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KHYR...KDLH AND
KHIB...WITH THUNDER ONLY KHYR FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDECE IS LOW THAT EACH SITE WILL GET THEM AND
HAVE PUT ONLY A VCTS GROUP. REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MONDAY AFTER ABOUT
21Z ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. HAVE
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH -SHRA...AND HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR NOW. FOR NOW HAVE SOME VFR CIGS WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT MVFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  44  33  43 /  50  50  20  10
INL  41  42  30  41 /  60  60  30  10
BRD  39  43  31  45 /  20  30  10  10
HYR  42  46  33  45 /  30  40  20  10
ASX  43  49  34  45 /  40  50  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...LE







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