Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 030821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND AREA RADARS SHOW SOME OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE


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