Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 290533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 800 PM...SFC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST OVER PINE COUNTY AND INTO THE ST CLOUD AREA.
MANY WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA RECORDED
TEMPERATURE DROPS ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR RAPIDLY DUMPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS
BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES OF KINL AND KHIB AFTER 20Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CEILINGS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH
MAY LIMIT MIXING AND TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  53  46  61 /  10   0  60  40
INL  35  59  46  65 /  10   0  60  40
BRD  40  59  53  68 /  10  10  60  30
HYR  36  62  49  63 /  10   0  50  50
ASX  38  56  46  64 /  10   0  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING





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