Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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815
FXUS63 KDLH 101753 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AT 345 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY IN PORTIONS OF THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 24 BELOW AT CRANE LAKE
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MUCH OF NW WI. THERE WAS EVEN A
TEMPERATURE OF 26 BELOW ZERO AT ONE OF THE MNDOT STATIONS AT ASH
LAKE. WIND CHILL READINGS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO SOME CLOUDS
AND WIND VARIATIONS. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL READING WAS -32 AT
THE GRAND MARAIS AIRPORT.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...AS AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL REMAIN QUITE VARIED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NE MN...AND
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN NW WI.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WHILE WIND CHILL READINGS SO FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN SUB-ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH
9 AM. WE ARE GRADUALLY COMING UP TO THE COLDEST TIME OF
NIGHT...AND WITH CLOUDS TRYING TO BREAK UP...THERE SHOULD STILL BE
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS.

THE NEXT MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
DOES DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INCREASES. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME ACCUMULATION TODAY...MAYBE 1 TO 3 INCHES ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACROSS MAINLY THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION DRY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT 850MB TEMPS
WILL STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND -28C OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY. SOME ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR...BUT THERE ARE SOME NEGATIVES WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL. THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE SOME LIMITATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SNOWBELT OF ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHLAND LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. LOWS
WILL DROP TO 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
SOME LIKELY EVEN COLDER SPOTS.

A CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE AND WAA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS HEAVY SNOW IS
UNLIKELY...BUT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE TWENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ONLY EXCEPTION TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE KHYR WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. OTHERWISE..WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALMOST OVERHEAD
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING..WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
LIGHT NORTH TO LIGHT WEST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
7-15KFT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AS WELL..WITH LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON SURFACE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   7 -11  12  -7 /   0   0   0   0
INL   3 -19   9 -16 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  11  -9  15  -3 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  10 -16  15  -5 /  20  10   0   0
ASX   9  -6  14  -1 /  50  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ004.

MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER



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