Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 262011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS...THEN WARMING UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A FAINT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BASICALLY BEMIDJI TO BRAINERD AND SOUTH...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THESE SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH WIND NEARLY CALM. LEANED
TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS IT TENDS TO PERFORMS WELL IN THESE
SITUATIONS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THIS SHIFT IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES OCCURS...A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND RAPID
COOLING...THUS SHIELDING US FROM THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO BE ADVECTED IN ALOFT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY...BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
MINNESOTA. LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS NOT STRONG BESIDES SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SEASONALLY NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/GEM/ECMWF TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK
WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OR NORTHERN IOWA...AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS TRACK KEEPS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD BE AFFECTED BY LIGHT RAIN AND SOME THUNDER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND NW ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND NE MINNESOTA WILL BE
UNDER WARM NW FLOW. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE NW FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM12 ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. I PROVIDED LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING THE CAP FROM
THE WARM FLOW. THE CHANCES WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THE CAP COULD BE OVERCOME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF SATURDAY AND HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND TO THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
COULD BUILD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NE MINNESOTA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE VFR AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
PRIMARILY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CALM AND THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THE COURSE OF TOMORROW. HOWEVER...KDLH WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY
A WEAK LAKE BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL COMPLEX.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
CONSIDERING THE VERY LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL
PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KINL AND KBRD SHOULD KEEP IT FROM FORMING...SO
THE THREAT IS PRIMARILY FOR KHYR/KDLH/KHIB. FORECAST VFR FOR KHIB
AND KDLH SINCE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW...BUT THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT FOR
KHYR SUGGESTS A GREAT ENOUGH RISK OF FOG FOR KHYR THAT ADDED MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND AROUND DAWN. CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG
WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 00Z FORECASTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  74  57  72 /   0  10  10  10
INL  45  77  56  79 /   0  10   0  30
BRD  50  75  60  76 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  40  75  59  73 /   0  10  10  30
ASX  43  77  58  74 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


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