Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250544 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AREA OF RAIN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE TWIN PORTS INTO NW WI
AND NORTH TO THE IRON RANGE AT 8PM. NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT LATEST MODELS INDICATE THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE NO LONGER SUPPORTING A MENTION OF SNOW
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE ARROWHEAD. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SW SOUTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHER MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE NORTHLAND HAD COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
BREEZY ENE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST
AND WINDIEST WEATHER WAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WERE RESULTING
IN PEAK WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS WERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE GETTING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEARLY STACKED
LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AREA.
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THE RADAR/PCPN TRENDS THE BEST TODAY...AND ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE LIFTING BAND OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MONDAY. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...WHILE THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING LOW
AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
ALREADY HAD 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY. THERE WAS
ONE ISOLATED REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES NEAR FORT RIPLEY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA
OF NW WISCONSIN AND THE TWIN PORTS TO TWO HARBORS COULD GET NEARLY
2 INCHES. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PONDING ON ROADS AND RIVERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE
COMING DAYS. SOME STRETCHES OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...COULD SEE SOME FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK.

THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE BREEZY ENE FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY. THE GALES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO BE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS...WHERE GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE EXPOSED BLATNIK AND BONG BRIDGES COULD GET STRAY
GUSTS TO NEARLY 50 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL
BE AT THEIR PEAK INTENSITY.

THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HEAVILY FAVOR RAIN AS
THE PCPN TYPE THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE
DUE TO THE MELTING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT...OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND INTRODUCE
CLEARING SKIES AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THERE REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES THE TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH MID
WEEK BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PUSH INTO IOWA
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE AS IT REACHES
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM TRACK WILL PLACE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW...GENERALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CANADIAN HIGH MAKES ANOTHER RUN AT BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH GUSTY WINDS.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF NO RAIN FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  36  32  42 /  90  80  60  10
INL  36  48  28  53 /  40  60  10   0
BRD  38  44  33  52 /  80  80  40  10
HYR  44  48  33  52 /  70  80  60  10
ASX  38  39  32  42 /  90  80  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...CLC



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