Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 040016 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
616 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A TYPICAL MARCH SNOW STORM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ARE MOVING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA AS OF 3PM.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BREEZY DAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE...A BRIEF RETURN TO THE CONDITIONS THAT PERSISTED MOST OF
FEBRUARY.

FORECAST WAS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE FOR TODAYS STORM AND APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE EVENING. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE
MEETING OUR EXPECTATIONS AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS...WITH PEAK GUSTS
NEAR OR JUST OVER 35KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE
EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THESE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
INDICATED THAT WHILE CONDITIONS WERE NOT EXTREME...SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE...THOUGH THIS
MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED SHOULD WINDS WEAKEN EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN ACTUALLY
JUST AS COLD AS THE MANY ARCTIC AIRMASSES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST LAST MONTH...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -25 TO -30C
RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -15...WITH FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EVEN COLDER. THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT BY MUCH...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -25 TO -35 RANGE. FOR THIS REASON
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR 06Z THROUGH 18Z.

WEDNESDAY...COLD WITH SOME CLOUDS. WHILE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE JUST SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND BREEZY
AT TIMES. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...WITH IS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS 20S BELOW ZERO. WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO
40 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. A
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. WE SHOULD STILL GENERALLY BE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
INTO THE 30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BY FRIDAY. HIGHS BY NEXT TUESDAY
COULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME DECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE CWA...AND THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE IT
COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EVENT OF THE SNOW
MELT AND THE WARMER AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE COLD SNOW PACK. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR SYSTEMS BRINGING SMALL CHANCE
EVENTS FOR THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THERE WERE VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNW WINDS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR
CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -6   5 -14  12 /  10  10   0   0
INL -14   3 -21  13 /  10  20   0   0
BRD  -9   6 -16  15 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  -6   7 -18  12 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  -1   7 -13  14 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ011-
     012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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