Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 171152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
652 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

It has been an active morning across the area this morning, with
thunderstorms affecting our northwest Wisconsin counties since
midnight.  Some of these storms were strong, but have now moved off
to the east away from the forecast area.  It was interesting
monitoring these storms without KDLH radar, but has made me grateful
for the overlapping coverage from KMPX, KARX and KMQT that we have
for northwest Wisconsin.  Crossing our fingers that we do not get
strong storms again until after October 28th, the current return to
service date of KDLH WSR-88D.  This mornings storms formed on the
nose of the low level jet extending up into northwest Wisconsin as
of 06z that has tilted farther east since then and nearly all of the
storms are over northeast Wisconsin and upper Michigan.  This has
left the forecast area with mainly stratus and a few light rain
showers.  Today, another shortwave will move through our
southwesterly upper level flow and generate another round of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.  Models are differing
on the strength and speed of this wave, so have had to do some
blending to allow for timing of precipitation arrival.  The wave and
precipitation move out of the area by Tuesday morning, allowing for
drier weather on Tuesday.  Temperatures remain mild and near to
above normal through Tuesday, with no large intrusions of cold/warm

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Will see quasi-zonal flow at the beginning of the long term with a
trough axis extending from Hudson Bay southwestward to northern Utah
at 500 hpa. The positively tilted trough axis will dig and deepen
southeastward into the Northern Plains by Wednesday evening. Expect
generally dry conditions on Wednesday, but with cyclonic flow across
the region expect clouds across far northern portions of the CWA
with more of a mix of sunshine and clouds across the south. Tuesday
night lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s in NE MN, while it
will be slightly warmer in NW WI with readings into the low to mid
40s. Highs on Wednesday range from the mid 40s in the International
Falls area, to near 60s in the Park Falls area.

The trough axis will continue to dig into the Upper Midwest on
Thursday moving into the central Great Lakes by early Friday. The
latest GFS is a slower and has a higher amplitude trough in
comparison to the ECWMF/GEM. Think the ECWMF/GEM have a better
handle on the feature, with the trough becoming negatively tilted
across the central Great Lakes and lift northeastward into the
Northeast by Friday evening. Colder air will advect into the
Northland through Thursday per the ECWMF/GEM/GFS at 850 hPa. Expect
the coolest readings of the forecast period Thursday heading into
Friday. Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s throughout the region.
Due to the lift from the trough moving through, expect low chances
of rain/snow showers Thursday morning before changing over to all
rain during the afternoon along the International Border in MN.
Thursday night lows range from the upper 20s to the mid 30s, with
the warmest readings along the Lake Superior shoreline.

Will continue to see generally dry conditions on Friday as high
pressure briefly builds in. The next chance of precipitation comes
Saturday and Sunday as shortwaves move through the region. Still
large uncertainty this far out with differences between the
GFS/ECMWF. The ECWMF has a higher amplitude ridge building into the
Northern Plains, while the GFS is a bit more broad generating zonal
flow over the region. Expect slightly warmer than normal high
temperatures Friday to Monday with readings ranging from the low 40s
to the mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The main concern with TAFs initially is fog early this morning.
Will gradually see VLIFR to MVFR fog dissipate as the mixed layer
develops. Along with the fog dissipating, the low ceilings will
scatter out to VFR conditions.

Late this afternoon and tonight showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will spread into the forecast area. This is due to
an area of low pressure expected to rapidly develop across
southern MN and move northeastward into James Bay by early Tuesday
morning. Expect most terminals to remain out of the thunder
activity with the exception of KHYR, however uncertain on how
widespread storms will be at this time. Ceiling will gradually
lower to MVFR/LIFR at KHYR and KDLH late tonight. Winds will
remain light through the forecast with speeds less than 10 kts


DLH  60  48  57  42 /  20  60  10  10
INL  60  44  52  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  63  47  59  42 /  30  50  10  10
HYR  67  48  61  44 /  50  70  10  10
ASX  62  49  61  44 /  50  70  20  10


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>147.



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