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000
FNUS21 KWNS 161619
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 04/16/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/

...Synopsis...
The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift
north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the
low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet
shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline
will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the
southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over
the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains.

..Southern Plains...
Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low
moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly
flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern
NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through
part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the
strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in
duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given
widespread dry fuels.

Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther
east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the
afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain
possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward.
However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface
conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on
precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be
brief and localized.

...Northern High Plains...
Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and
adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves
into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal
environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with
gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly
unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will
remain more localized.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$